The model missed the final outcome (Atletico el Vigia FC win 5–2).
The model had projected Fundación Lara Deportiva at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Fundación Lara Deportiva Atletico el Vigia FC ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 5-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico el Vigia FC | 32.9% | 26.2% | +6.6 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.6% | +3.0 pp | Aligned |
| Fundación Lara Deportiva | 37.5% | 47.1% | -9.6 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Fundación Lara Deportiva's win probability at 47.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 9.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Atletico el Vigia FC win 5–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Fundación Lara Deportiva. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Fundación Lara Deportiva; match finished Atletico el Vigia FC
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Fundación Lara Deportiva by 9.6 percentage points (47.1% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Atletico el Vigia FC 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Fundación Lara Deportiva 37.6%
- xG · Atletico el Vigia FC 1.25 — Fundación Lara Deportiva 1.35
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 19:04 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Atletico el Vigia FC 3.38 · Draw 3.33 · Fundación Lara Deportiva 1.88
- Implied 1X2 · Atletico el Vigia FC 26.2% · Draw 26.6% · Fundación Lara Deportiva 47.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Atletico el Vigia FC 3.38 · Draw 3.33 · Fundación Lara Deportiva 1.88
- Implied 1X2 · Atletico el Vigia FC 26.2% · Draw 26.6% · Fundación Lara Deportiva 47.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 19:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Atletico el Vigia FC win · 5–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore More Predictions Content
Get Premium Predictions for Atletico el Vigia FC & Fundación Lara Deportiva!
Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.
Subscribe Now
Segunda División — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Lara | 27 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 60 |
| 2 | Fundación Lara Deportiva | 27 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 50 |
| 3 | Urena SC | 28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 45 |
| 4 | Yaracuyanos FC | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40 |
| 5 | Zamora FC B | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40 |
| 6 | Atletico el Vigia FC | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 34 |
| 7 | Puerto Cabello II | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 31 |
| 8 | Club Atletico Barinas | 28 | 9 | 4 | 15 | 31 |
| 9 | Real Frontera | 28 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 12 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Atletico Barinas | 28 | 49 | 59 | -10 | 31 |
| 2 | Fundación Lara Deportiva | 27 | 48 | 27 | +21 | 50 |
| 3 | Deportivo Lara | 27 | 46 | 20 | +26 | 60 |
| 4 | Zamora FC B | 27 | 42 | 36 | +6 | 40 |
| 5 | Urena SC | 28 | 41 | 34 | +7 | 45 |
| 6 | Puerto Cabello II | 28 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 31 |
| 7 | Yaracuyanos FC | 27 | 34 | 27 | +7 | 40 |
| 8 | Atletico el Vigia FC | 28 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 34 |
| 9 | Real Frontera | 28 | 22 | 62 | -40 | 12 |
