Predictions / Football / Chile. Primera B / Deportes Iquique vs Antofagasta

Prediction Audit: Deportes Iquique vs Antofagasta Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Deportes Iquique Deportes Iquique
Aug 17, 2026 - 00:00
1 1.27
1 1.33
xG Accuracy: 85%
Antofagasta Antofagasta

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Antofagasta at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Antofagasta Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Deportes Iquique -2.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Deportes Iquique 33.8% 36.1% -2.3 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 27.9% +1.8 pp Aligned
Antofagasta 36.6% 36.1% +0.5 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Antofagasta; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 16, 2026 · 23:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Deportes Iquique 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Antofagasta 36.6%
    • xG · Deportes Iquique 1.27 — Antofagasta 1.33
  2. Aug 16, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Deportes Iquique 2.54 · Draw 3.29 · Antofagasta 2.54
    • Implied 1X2 · Deportes Iquique 36.1% · Draw 27.9% · Antofagasta 36.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 16, 2026 · 23:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Deportes Iquique 2.54 · Draw 3.29 · Antofagasta 2.54
    • Implied 1X2 · Deportes Iquique 36.1% · Draw 27.9% · Antofagasta 36.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 17, 2026 · 00:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 30/100
Monitoring Confidence 35/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 02:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3615988

Closing Odds 2.54
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Deportes Iquique 1–1 Antofagasta
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera B
  • Fixture: Deportes Iquique vs Antofagasta
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-17 00:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Deportes Iquique 1.27 — Antofagasta 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera B Primera B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Santiago Wanderers 24 12 8 4 44
2 Cobreloa 24 11 9 4 42
3 San Luis 24 11 8 5 41
4 Magallanes 25 11 7 7 40
5 Antofagasta 25 10 8 7 38
6 Recoleta 25 10 8 7 38
7 San Marcos de Arica 25 9 9 7 36
8 Union Espanola 25 10 6 9 36
9 D. Puerto Montt 25 10 4 11 34
10 Deportes Temuco 25 8 8 9 32
11 Deportes Copiapo 24 8 7 9 31
12 Deportes Iquique 25 6 10 9 28
13 Curico Unido 25 6 9 10 27
14 Deportes Santa Cruz 25 4 10 11 22
15 Union San Felipe 23 5 7 11 22
16 Rangers de Talca 25 4 6 15 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Antofagasta 25 42 26 +16 38
2 Cobreloa 24 42 27 +15 42
3 Magallanes 25 41 38 +3 40
4 Santiago Wanderers 24 40 25 +15 44
5 Deportes Temuco 25 40 35 +5 32
6 San Luis 24 38 29 +9 41
7 Recoleta 25 36 33 +3 38
8 Deportes Iquique 25 33 30 +3 28
9 Deportes Copiapo 24 33 38 -5 31
10 Union Espanola 25 32 32 0 36
11 San Marcos de Arica 25 31 23 +8 36
12 D. Puerto Montt 25 26 31 -5 34
13 Deportes Santa Cruz 25 26 38 -12 22
14 Rangers de Talca 25 23 40 -17 18
15 Curico Unido 25 22 38 -16 27
16 Union San Felipe 23 15 37 -22 22
Primera B Chile. Primera B Predictions