The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Felgueiras U23 at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Felgueiras U23 Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Felgueiras U23; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 01, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Felgueiras U23 1.35 — Estoril U23 1.25
-
Sep 01, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Felgueiras U23 2–2 Estoril U23
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Liga Revelação U23 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Academico Viseu U23 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 2 | Estoril U23 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 3 | Sporting CP U23 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 4 | Rio Ave U23 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | Vizela U23 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Felgueiras U23 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Moreirense U23 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | União Leiria U23 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Famalicão U23 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Farense U23 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | Sporting Braga U23 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 12 | Benfica U23 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 13 | Leixões U23 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 14 | Santa Clara U23 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 15 | Penafiel U23 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 16 | Gil Vicente U23 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 17 | Torreense U23 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 18 | Marítimo U23 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 19 | Estrela U23 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 20 | Portimonense U23 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moreirense U23 | 8 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 11 |
| 2 | Estoril U23 | 8 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 16 |
| 3 | Academico Viseu U23 | 8 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 17 |
| 4 | Sporting CP U23 | 8 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 15 |
| 5 | Leixões U23 | 8 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 9 |
| 6 | Famalicão U23 | 8 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Felgueiras U23 | 8 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 12 |
| 8 | Sporting Braga U23 | 8 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Penafiel U23 | 8 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Farense U23 | 8 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 11 |
| 11 | Benfica U23 | 8 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Rio Ave U23 | 8 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 13 |
| 13 | Vizela U23 | 7 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 13 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente U23 | 8 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 8 |
| 15 | Torreense U23 | 7 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 6 |
| 16 | União Leiria U23 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 11 |
| 17 | Marítimo U23 | 8 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 6 |
| 18 | Estrela U23 | 8 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 5 |
| 19 | Santa Clara U23 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 9 |
| 20 | Portimonense U23 | 8 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 4 |
