AI correctly predicted the Wals-Grünau win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Wals-Grünau Wals-Grünau ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wals-Grünau | 36.1% | 63.9% | -27.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 19.9% | +9.8 pp | Model Higher |
| Pinzgau Saalfelden | 34.2% | 16.3% | +18.0 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Wals-Grünau's win probability at 63.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 27.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Wals-Grünau win 2–1).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Wals-Grünau higher (63.9% vs model 36.1%, 27.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Wals-Grünau win 2–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 13:31 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Wals-Grünau 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Pinzgau Saalfelden 34.2%
- xG · Wals-Grünau 1.32 — Pinzgau Saalfelden 1.28
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 13:22 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Wals-Grünau 1.40 · Draw 4.50 · Pinzgau Saalfelden 5.50
- Implied 1X2 · Wals-Grünau 63.9% · Draw 19.9% · Pinzgau Saalfelden 16.3%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 13:31 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Wals-Grünau 1.40 · Draw 4.50 · Pinzgau Saalfelden 5.50
- Implied 1X2 · Wals-Grünau 63.9% · Draw 19.9% · Pinzgau Saalfelden 16.3%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Wals-Grünau win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (28 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Regionalliga - North — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wals-Grünau | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 22 |
| 2 | Wallern / Marienkirchen | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 3 | Gurten | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 4 | LASK Juniors | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 5 | Bad Schallerbach | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Kuchl | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Grödig | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | TSV St. Johann | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | SK Vorwarts Steyr | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Leonfelden | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 11 | Ried II | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 12 | Seekirchen | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 13 | Wohnbau Dietach | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 14 | UFC Hallein | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 15 | Pinzgau Saalfelden | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wallern / Marienkirchen | 9 | 26 | 9 | +17 | 19 |
| 2 | LASK Juniors | 8 | 24 | 10 | +14 | 14 |
| 3 | Wals-Grünau | 10 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 22 |
| 4 | Bad Schallerbach | 9 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 14 |
| 5 | Gurten | 9 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 16 |
| 6 | Kuchl | 9 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 14 |
| 7 | Leonfelden | 8 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 10 |
| 8 | Grödig | 8 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 13 |
| 9 | Pinzgau Saalfelden | 9 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 5 |
| 10 | TSV St. Johann | 9 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 13 |
| 11 | Wohnbau Dietach | 9 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 8 |
| 12 | SK Vorwarts Steyr | 8 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Ried II | 9 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 10 |
| 14 | UFC Hallein | 9 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 6 |
| 15 | Seekirchen | 9 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 8 |
