Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 1 / Wisła Płock II vs Mławianka Mława

Prediction Audit: Wisła Płock II vs Mławianka Mława Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Wisła Płock II Wisła Płock II
Aug 29, 2026 - 10:00
5 1.31
3 1.29
xG Accuracy: 23%
Mławianka Mława Mławianka Mława

AI correctly predicted the Wisła Płock II win.

The match finished 5–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Wisła Płock II Wisła Płock II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-3 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 8 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (8 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Wisła Płock II win 5–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 23, 2026 · 01:22 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Wisła Płock II 1.31 — Mławianka Mława 1.29
  2. Aug 29, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Wisła Płock II win · 5–3
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 01:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5123353

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Wisła Płock II win · Wisła Płock II 5–3 Mławianka Mława
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: III Liga - Group 1
  • Fixture: Wisła Płock II vs Mławianka Mława
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-29 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Wisła Płock II 1.31 — Mławianka Mława 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 1 III Liga - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Weszlo 9 8 1 0 25
2 Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 10 6 2 2 20
3 Wigry Suwałki 10 5 4 1 19
4 Pelikan Łowicz 10 6 1 3 19
5 Wisła Płock II 10 5 3 2 18
6 Swit 10 5 2 3 17
7 Ząbkovia Ząbki 10 5 1 4 16
8 Jagiellonia II 10 4 3 3 15
9 Warta Sieradz 9 4 2 3 14
10 Widzew II 9 4 1 4 13
11 Lechia T. Mazowiecki 10 4 1 5 13
12 Olimpia Zambrów 10 3 2 5 11
13 ŁKS Łódź II 9 3 1 5 10
14 Olimpia Elbląg 10 3 1 6 10
15 Mławianka Mława 10 3 1 6 10
16 Troszyn 9 1 3 5 6
17 Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 9 1 2 6 5
18 Łomża 10 0 3 7 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 10 26 17 +9 20
2 Weszlo 9 22 6 +16 25
3 Wisła Płock II 10 22 17 +5 18
4 Jagiellonia II 10 22 20 +2 15
5 Widzew II 9 20 17 +3 13
6 Lechia T. Mazowiecki 10 20 21 -1 13
7 Olimpia Zambrów 10 20 26 -6 11
8 Mławianka Mława 10 20 28 -8 10
9 Ząbkovia Ząbki 10 19 18 +1 16
10 Wigry Suwałki 10 18 10 +8 19
11 Warta Sieradz 9 17 15 +2 14
12 Swit 10 16 10 +6 17
13 Pelikan Łowicz 10 16 12 +4 19
14 ŁKS Łódź II 9 15 18 -3 10
15 Olimpia Elbląg 10 14 20 -6 10
16 Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 9 13 20 -7 5
17 Troszyn 9 11 23 -12 6
18 Łomża 10 10 23 -13 3
III Liga - Group 1 Poland. III Liga - Group 1 Predictions