Prediction Audit: Dobrudzha vs Rilski Sportist Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dobrudzha

Aug 29, 2026 - 17:00

0 1.48

0 1.12

xG Accuracy: 49%

Rilski Sportist

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Dobrudzha at 43.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Dobrudzha Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Dobrudzha	43.8%	38.3%	+5.5 pp	Model Higher
Draw	29.1%	32.0%	-2.9 pp	Aligned
Rilski Sportist	27.1%	29.7%	-2.6 pp	Aligned

The statistical model estimates Dobrudzha's win probability at 43.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 38.3%, a difference of 5.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Dobrudzha.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
1X2: model leaned Dobrudzha; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Dobrudzha by 5.5 percentage points (38.3% vs model 43.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 29, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Dobrudzha 43.9% · Draw 29.1% · Rilski Sportist 27.1%
- xG · Dobrudzha 1.48 — Rilski Sportist 1.12
Aug 29, 2026 · 16:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Dobrudzha 2.32 · Draw 2.78 · Rilski Sportist 2.99
- Implied 1X2 · Dobrudzha 38.3% · Draw 32.0% · Rilski Sportist 29.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 29, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Dobrudzha 2.32 · Draw 2.78 · Rilski Sportist 2.99
- Implied 1X2 · Dobrudzha 38.3% · Draw 32.0% · Rilski Sportist 29.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 29, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Market Compatibility 72/100

Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 04:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5158014

Closing Odds 2.32

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Dobrudzha 0–0 Rilski Sportist

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Second League
Fixture: Dobrudzha vs Rilski Sportist
Kickoff: 2026-08-29 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 43.9% · Draw 29.1% · Away 27.1%
xG (showing): Dobrudzha 1.48 — Rilski Sportist 1.12 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Vihren	11	7	3	1	24
2	CSKA Sofia II	11	7	2	2	23
3	Fratria	11	6	4	1	22
4	Chernomorets 1919 Burgas	11	6	3	2	21
5	Beroe	11	5	3	3	18
6	Rilski Sportist	11	5	3	3	18
7	Nesebar	11	5	2	4	17
8	Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa	11	4	4	3	16
9	Yantra 2019	11	5	1	5	16
10	Hebar 1918	11	4	2	5	14
11	Etar Veliko Tarnovo	10	4	2	4	14
12	Marek	11	4	2	5	14
13	Spartak Pleven	11	4	1	6	13
14	Ludogorets II	10	3	3	4	12
15	Montana	11	3	2	6	11
16	Sportist Svoge	11	2	4	5	10
17	Dobrudzha	11	2	3	6	9
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	11	0	0	11	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Vihren	11	25	11	+14	24
2	Hebar 1918	11	24	19	+5	14
3	CSKA Sofia II	11	23	9	+14	23
4	Nesebar	11	20	17	+3	17
5	Chernomorets 1919 Burgas	11	18	8	+10	21
6	Fratria	11	17	8	+9	22
7	Etar Veliko Tarnovo	10	17	19	-2	14
8	Beroe	11	16	12	+4	18
9	Rilski Sportist	11	14	10	+4	18
10	Montana	11	13	23	-10	11
11	Yantra 2019	11	12	11	+1	16
12	Dobrudzha	11	12	18	-6	9
13	Marek	11	11	12	-1	14
14	Spartak Pleven	11	11	22	-11	13
15	Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa	11	9	10	-1	16
16	Ludogorets II	10	9	10	-1	12
17	Sportist Svoge	11	7	10	-3	10
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	11	4	33	-29	0