AI correctly predicted the Ohrid win.
The match finished 5–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Ohrid Ohrid ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 5-1 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohrid | 43.4% | 71.4% | -28.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.1% | 19.0% | +10.2 pp | Model Edge |
| Kozuv Gevgelija | 27.5% | 9.6% | +17.9 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Ohrid's win probability at 71.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 43.4%, a difference of 28.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Ohrid win 5–1).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Ohrid higher (71.5% vs model 43.4%, 28.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Ohrid win 5–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 30, 2026 · 14:44 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Ohrid 43.3% · Draw 29.2% · Kozuv Gevgelija 27.5%
- xG · Ohrid 1.47 — Kozuv Gevgelija 1.13
-
Aug 30, 2026 · 14:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Ohrid 1.33 · Draw 4.20 · Kozuv Gevgelija 7.50
- Implied 1X2 · Ohrid 66.9% · Draw 21.2% · Kozuv Gevgelija 11.9%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Aug 30, 2026 · 14:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Ohrid 1.25 · Draw 4.70 · Kozuv Gevgelija 9.30
- Implied 1X2 · Ohrid 71.4% · Draw 19.0% · Kozuv Gevgelija 9.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 30, 2026 · 14:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Ohrid win · 5–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (28 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Second League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohrid | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | Pelister | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 3 | Akademija Pandev | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 4 | FK Rabotnicki | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 5 | Belasica | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 6 | Kamjani | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Novaci | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | Makedonija GjP | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | Detonit Plachkovica | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 10 | Kozuv Gevgelija | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 11 | Teteks | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 12 | Gorno Lisiče | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 13 | Osogovo | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 14 | Shkupi 1927 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohrid | 6 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 15 |
| 2 | Akademija Pandev | 5 | 12 | 1 | +11 | 13 |
| 3 | Pelister | 6 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 14 |
| 4 | Belasica | 6 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 10 |
| 5 | FK Rabotnicki | 5 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 12 |
| 6 | Kamjani | 6 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 10 |
| 7 | Detonit Plachkovica | 6 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 7 |
| 8 | Teteks | 6 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 6 |
| 9 | Kozuv Gevgelija | 6 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 7 |
| 10 | Novaci | 6 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Gorno Lisiče | 6 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | Makedonija GjP | 6 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Osogovo | 6 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 2 |
| 14 | Shkupi 1927 | 6 | 1 | 22 | -21 | 0 |
