Predictions / Football / Israel. Liga Leumit / Hapoel Acre vs Maccabi Kiryat Gat

Prediction Audit: Hapoel Acre vs Maccabi Kiryat Gat Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hapoel Acre Hapoel Acre
Aug 18, 2026 - 16:30
0 1.25
2 1.35
xG Accuracy: 59%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat Maccabi Kiryat Gat

AI correctly predicted the Maccabi Kiryat Gat win.

The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Maccabi Kiryat Gat Maccabi Kiryat Gat ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Hapoel Acre higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Hapoel Acre -5.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Hapoel Acre 32.9% 38.5% -5.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 29.6% +0.0 pp Aligned
Maccabi Kiryat Gat 37.5% 31.9% +5.7 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Hapoel Acre's win probability at 38.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 5.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Maccabi Kiryat Gat win 0–2).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Hapoel Acre. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Maccabi Kiryat Gat higher (43.2% vs model 37.5%, 5.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Maccabi Kiryat Gat win 0–2).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 18, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Hapoel Acre 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Maccabi Kiryat Gat 37.6%
    • xG · Hapoel Acre 1.25 — Maccabi Kiryat Gat 1.35
  2. Aug 18, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Hapoel Acre 2.38 · Draw 3.10 · Maccabi Kiryat Gat 2.88
    • Implied 1X2 · Hapoel Acre 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Maccabi Kiryat Gat 31.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 18, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Hapoel Acre 2.38 · Draw 3.10 · Maccabi Kiryat Gat 2.88
    • Implied 1X2 · Hapoel Acre 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Maccabi Kiryat Gat 31.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 18, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Maccabi Kiryat Gat win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 24/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 12, 2026 · 02:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3728379

Closing Odds 2.38
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Maccabi Kiryat Gat win · Hapoel Acre 0–2 Maccabi Kiryat Gat
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Liga Leumit
  • Fixture: Hapoel Acre vs Maccabi Kiryat Gat
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-18 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): Hapoel Acre 1.25 — Maccabi Kiryat Gat 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga Leumit Liga Leumit — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Ashdod 7 6 0 1 18
2 Bnei Yehuda 7 5 2 0 17
3 Hapoel Rishon LeZion 7 5 1 1 16
4 Hapoel Ra'anana 7 5 0 2 15
5 Hapoel Afula 7 4 1 2 13
6 Kiryat Yam SC 7 4 0 3 12
7 Maccabi Bnei Raina 7 4 0 3 12
8 Hapoel Kfar Shalem 7 3 2 2 11
9 Kafr Qasim 7 3 1 3 10
10 Maccabi Kiryat Gat 7 2 2 3 8
11 Maccabi Herzliya 7 2 2 3 8
12 Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 7 2 1 4 7
13 Hapoel Kfar Saba 7 2 0 5 6
14 Ironi Modi'in 7 1 2 4 5
15 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 7 1 0 6 3
16 Hapoel Acre 7 0 0 7 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Kiryat Yam SC 7 21 13 +8 12
2 Hapoel Ra'anana 7 18 9 +9 15
3 Ashdod 7 17 6 +11 18
4 Bnei Yehuda 7 17 6 +11 17
5 Hapoel Kfar Shalem 7 15 16 -1 11
6 Hapoel Afula 7 14 10 +4 13
7 Hapoel Rishon LeZion 7 13 7 +6 16
8 Maccabi Bnei Raina 7 12 11 +1 12
9 Kafr Qasim 7 10 7 +3 10
10 Ironi Modi'in 7 10 14 -4 5
11 Hapoel Kfar Saba 7 9 18 -9 6
12 Maccabi Herzliya 7 8 10 -2 8
13 Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 7 7 10 -3 7
14 Maccabi Kiryat Gat 7 6 7 -1 8
15 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 7 6 17 -11 3
16 Hapoel Acre 7 0 22 -22 0
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