Predictions / Football / Paraguay. Division Profesional - Clausura / Sportivo Ameliano vs Deportivo Recoleta

Prediction Audit: Sportivo Ameliano vs Deportivo Recoleta Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano
Aug 22, 2026 - 19:00
3 1.30
1 1.02
xG Accuracy: 62%
Deportivo Recoleta Deportivo Recoleta

AI correctly predicted the Sportivo Ameliano win.

The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Draw +4.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sportivo Ameliano 41.2% 44.5% -3.3 pp Aligned
Draw 31.3% 26.5% +4.7 pp Aligned
Deportivo Recoleta 27.5% 28.9% -1.4 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Sportivo Ameliano win 3–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Sportivo Ameliano win 3–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 22, 2026 · 19:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sportivo Ameliano 41.2% · Draw 31.3% · Deportivo Recoleta 27.5%
    • xG · Sportivo Ameliano 1.30 — Deportivo Recoleta 1.02
  2. Aug 22, 2026 · 18:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sportivo Ameliano 2.14 · Draw 3.59 · Deportivo Recoleta 3.29
    • Implied 1X2 · Sportivo Ameliano 44.5% · Draw 26.5% · Deportivo Recoleta 28.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 22, 2026 · 19:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sportivo Ameliano 2.14 · Draw 3.59 · Deportivo Recoleta 3.29
    • Implied 1X2 · Sportivo Ameliano 44.5% · Draw 26.5% · Deportivo Recoleta 28.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 22, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Sportivo Ameliano win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 76/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 00:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4359326

Closing Odds 3.59
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Sportivo Ameliano win · Sportivo Ameliano 3–1 Deportivo Recoleta
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division Profesional - Clausura
  • Fixture: Sportivo Ameliano vs Deportivo Recoleta
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.2% · Draw 31.3% · Away 27.5%
  • xG (showing): Sportivo Ameliano 1.3 — Deportivo Recoleta 1.02 (total xG ≈ 2.32)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.0%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 59.1% · Over 2.5 40.9%); BTTS No (Yes 48.2% · No 51.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 48.2% · No 51.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.0%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Division Profesional - Clausura Division Profesional - Clausura — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Libertad Asuncion 11 7 2 2 23
2 Nacional Asuncion 12 6 4 2 22
3 2 de Mayo 12 6 4 2 22
4 Olimpia 11 7 1 3 22
5 Club Guarani 12 5 5 2 20
6 Sportivo Ameliano 12 4 6 2 18
7 Sportivo Trinidense 11 5 2 4 17
8 Cerro Porteno 11 5 2 4 17
9 Sportivo Luqueno 12 4 1 7 13
10 Rubio NU 12 2 3 7 9
11 Deportivo Recoleta 11 2 1 8 7
12 Club Sp. San Lorenzo 11 0 1 10 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Olimpia 11 20 9 +11 22
2 Nacional Asuncion 12 19 7 +12 22
3 Libertad Asuncion 11 19 12 +7 23
4 Sportivo Trinidense 11 18 10 +8 17
5 Cerro Porteno 11 14 10 +4 17
6 2 de Mayo 12 14 13 +1 22
7 Sportivo Ameliano 12 14 13 +1 18
8 Club Guarani 12 13 9 +4 20
9 Rubio NU 12 13 23 -10 9
10 Deportivo Recoleta 11 13 24 -11 7
11 Sportivo Luqueno 12 12 21 -9 13
12 Club Sp. San Lorenzo 11 3 21 -18 1