Predictions / Football / Finland. Kakkonen - Lohko B / EPS vs HJS Akatemia

Prediction Audit: EPS vs HJS Akatemia Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

EPS EPS
Aug 22, 2026 - 12:00
2 1.25
0 1.35
xG Accuracy: 56%
HJS Akatemia HJS Akatemia

The model missed the final outcome (EPS win 2–0).

The model had projected HJS Akatemia at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 HJS Akatemia EPS ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices EPS higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: EPS -6.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
EPS 32.9% 39.0% -6.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 25.6% +4.0 pp Aligned
HJS Akatemia 37.5% 35.4% +2.2 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates EPS's win probability at 39.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 6.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was EPS win 2–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on EPS. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned HJS Akatemia; match finished EPS

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on HJS Akatemia by 6.2 percentage points (43.7% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 22, 2026 · 12:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · EPS 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · HJS Akatemia 37.6%
    • xG · EPS 1.25 — HJS Akatemia 1.35
  2. Aug 22, 2026 · 11:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · EPS 2.32 · Draw 3.53 · HJS Akatemia 2.56
    • Implied 1X2 · EPS 39.0% · Draw 25.6% · HJS Akatemia 35.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 22, 2026 · 12:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · EPS 2.32 · Draw 3.53 · HJS Akatemia 2.56
    • Implied 1X2 · EPS 39.0% · Draw 25.6% · HJS Akatemia 35.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 22, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result EPS win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 24/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 01:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4217414

Closing Odds 2.32
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result EPS win · EPS 2–0 HJS Akatemia
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Kakkonen - Lohko B
  • Fixture: EPS vs HJS Akatemia
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): EPS 1.25 — HJS Akatemia 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Kakkonen - Lohko B Kakkonen - Lohko B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Honka 18 13 4 1 43
2 ÅIFK 18 12 3 3 39
3 EPS 18 10 2 6 32
4 HJS Akatemia 18 9 4 5 31
5 Ilves II 18 8 6 4 30
6 P-Iirot 18 8 3 7 27
7 GrIFK 18 7 3 8 24
8 EBK 18 4 3 11 15
9 Musa 18 3 3 12 12
10 NJS 18 0 1 17 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Honka 18 56 17 +39 43
2 Ilves II 18 51 30 +21 30
3 EPS 18 39 26 +13 32
4 ÅIFK 18 38 18 +20 39
5 HJS Akatemia 18 30 24 +6 31
6 P-Iirot 18 30 25 +5 27
7 EBK 18 27 43 -16 15
8 GrIFK 18 23 31 -8 24
9 Musa 18 19 55 -36 12
10 NJS 18 10 54 -44 1
Kakkonen - Lohko B Finland. Kakkonen - Lohko B Predictions