Predictions / Football / Saudi-Arabia. King's Cup / Al Anwar vs Al-Ahli Jeddah

Prediction Audit: Al Anwar vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Al Anwar Al Anwar
Aug 17, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.27
2 1.33
xG Accuracy: 77%
Al-Ahli Jeddah Al-Ahli Jeddah

AI correctly predicted the Al-Ahli Jeddah win.

The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Al-Ahli Jeddah Al-Ahli Jeddah ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Al-Ahli Jeddah higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Al-Ahli Jeddah -48.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Al Anwar 33.8% 5.3% +28.5 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 10.0% +19.6 pp Model Edge
Al-Ahli Jeddah 36.6% 84.7% -48.1 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Al-Ahli Jeddah's win probability at 84.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 48.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Al-Ahli Jeddah win 1–2).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Al-Ahli Jeddah higher (84.7% vs model 36.6%, 48.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Al-Ahli Jeddah win 1–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 17, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Al Anwar 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Al-Ahli Jeddah 36.6%
    • xG · Al Anwar 1.27 — Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.33
  2. Aug 17, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Al Anwar 17.57 · Draw 9.33 · Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.10
    • Implied 1X2 · Al Anwar 5.3% · Draw 10.0% · Al-Ahli Jeddah 84.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 17, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Al Anwar 17.57 · Draw 9.33 · Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.10
    • Implied 1X2 · Al Anwar 5.3% · Draw 10.0% · Al-Ahli Jeddah 84.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 17, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Al-Ahli Jeddah win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 25/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (48 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 7/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 02:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3618401

Closing Odds 1.1
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Al-Ahli Jeddah win · Al Anwar 1–2 Al-Ahli Jeddah
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah; market prices Al-Ahli Jeddah instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Al Anwar 1.27 xG vs Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.33 → Al-Ahli Jeddah 36.6%
  • Market: Al-Ahli Jeddah ~84.7% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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