Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 4 / Jarosław vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska

Prediction Audit: Jarosław vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Jarosław Jarosław
Aug 22, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.24
0 1.36
xG Accuracy: 56%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska Podlasie Biała Podlaska

The model missed the final outcome (Jarosław win 2–0).

The model had projected Podlasie Biała Podlaska at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Podlasie Biała Podlaska Jarosław ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Jarosław higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Jarosław -10.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Jarosław 32.4% 43.1% -10.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 25.9% +3.7 pp Aligned
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 38.0% 31.0% +7.0 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Jarosław's win probability at 43.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.4%, a difference of 10.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Jarosław win 2–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Jarosław than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Podlasie Biała Podlaska; match finished Jarosław

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Podlasie Biała Podlaska by 10.7 percentage points (48.7% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 22, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Jarosław 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Podlasie Biała Podlaska 38.0%
    • xG · Jarosław 1.24 — Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1.36
  2. Aug 22, 2026 · 14:36 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Jarosław 2.06 · Draw 3.43 · Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2.87
    • Implied 1X2 · Jarosław 43.1% · Draw 25.9% · Podlasie Biała Podlaska 31.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 22, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Jarosław 2.06 · Draw 3.43 · Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2.87
    • Implied 1X2 · Jarosław 43.1% · Draw 25.9% · Podlasie Biała Podlaska 31.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 22, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Jarosław win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 16/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 02:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4232856

Closing Odds 2.06
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Jarosław win · Jarosław 2–0 Podlasie Biała Podlaska
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: III Liga - Group 4
  • Fixture: Jarosław vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
  • xG (showing): Jarosław 1.24 — Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 4 III Liga - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Chełmianka Chełm 10 8 2 0 26
2 KSZO 1929 9 5 4 0 19
3 Czarni Połaniec 10 6 1 3 19
4 Wisłoka Dębica 10 6 1 3 19
5 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 10 5 2 3 17
6 Naprzód 10 5 2 3 17
7 Jarosław 9 5 1 3 16
8 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 10 4 2 4 14
9 Wisła Kraków II 10 3 4 3 13
10 Sokół Kolb. 10 2 6 2 12
11 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 10 3 2 5 11
12 Busko-Zdroj 10 3 2 5 11
13 Hetman Zamosc 9 2 4 3 10
14 Star Starachowice 10 2 4 4 10
15 Korona Kielce II 10 2 2 6 8
16 KS Wieczysta Krakow II 10 2 2 6 8
17 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 10 2 1 7 7
18 Moravia Morawica 9 2 0 7 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Jarosław 9 24 15 +9 16
2 Naprzód 10 24 20 +4 17
3 Korona Kielce II 10 21 26 -5 8
4 Czarni Połaniec 10 17 15 +2 19
5 Chełmianka Chełm 10 16 3 +13 26
6 Hetman Zamosc 9 16 17 -1 10
7 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 10 15 10 +5 17
8 KSZO 1929 9 14 6 +8 19
9 Wisłoka Dębica 10 14 12 +2 19
10 Busko-Zdroj 10 14 21 -7 11
11 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 10 13 13 0 14
12 Wisła Kraków II 10 13 13 0 13
13 Star Starachowice 10 11 15 -4 10
14 Sokół Kolb. 10 10 10 0 12
15 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 10 10 19 -9 7
16 KS Wieczysta Krakow II 10 9 14 -5 8
17 Moravia Morawica 9 9 18 -9 6
18 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 10 8 11 -3 11
III Liga - Group 4 Poland. III Liga - Group 4 Predictions