Predictions / Football / England. National League - South / Salisbury vs Hemel Hempstead Town

Prediction Audit: Salisbury vs Hemel Hempstead Town Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Salisbury Salisbury
Aug 22, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.30
2 1.30
xG Accuracy: 76%
Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead Town

The model missed the final outcome (Hemel Hempstead Town win 1–2).

The model had projected Salisbury at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Salisbury Hemel Hempstead Town ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Draw +3.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Salisbury 35.2% 36.5% -1.4 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 26.4% +3.3 pp Aligned
Hemel Hempstead Town 35.2% 37.1% -1.9 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.

After full time, the result was Hemel Hempstead Town win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Salisbury; match finished Hemel Hempstead Town

Market lesson

The full-time result was Hemel Hempstead Town win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 22, 2026 · 14:07 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Salisbury 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Hemel Hempstead Town 35.2%
    • xG · Salisbury 1.30 — Hemel Hempstead Town 1.30
  2. Aug 22, 2026 · 13:46 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Salisbury 2.54 · Draw 3.52 · Hemel Hempstead Town 2.50
    • Implied 1X2 · Salisbury 36.5% · Draw 26.4% · Hemel Hempstead Town 37.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 22, 2026 · 14:07 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · Salisbury 2.54 · Draw 3.52 · Hemel Hempstead Town 2.50
    • Implied 1X2 · Salisbury 36.5% · Draw 26.4% · Hemel Hempstead Town 37.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 22, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Hemel Hempstead Town win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 29/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 02:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4227757

Closing Odds 3.52
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Hemel Hempstead Town win · Salisbury 1–2 Hemel Hempstead Town
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: National League - South
  • Fixture: Salisbury vs Hemel Hempstead Town
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Salisbury 1.3 — Hemel Hempstead Town 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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National League - South National League - South — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Maidstone Utd 9 6 1 2 19
2 Weston-super-Mare 9 5 2 2 17
3 Dagenham & Redbridge 9 5 1 3 16
4 Salisbury 9 4 3 2 15
5 Billericay Town 9 4 3 2 15
6 Tonbridge Angels 9 4 2 3 14
7 Truro City 8 4 2 2 14
8 Dover 9 4 2 3 14
9 Dorking Wanderers 9 3 4 2 13
10 Torquay 9 3 4 2 13
11 Farnham Town 8 4 1 3 13
12 Folkestone Invicta 8 3 3 2 12
13 Chesham United 9 3 1 5 10
14 Chelmsford City 8 1 7 0 10
15 Horsham 8 2 4 2 10
16 Hemel Hempstead Town 9 2 4 3 10
17 Maidenhead 9 2 4 3 10
18 Braintree 8 3 1 4 10
19 AFC Totton 8 3 1 4 10
20 Farnborough 8 3 1 4 10
21 Hampton & Richmond 9 2 2 5 8
22 Ebbsfleet United 3 1 2 0 5
23 Slough Town 8 1 0 7 3
24 Walton & Hersham 8 0 1 7 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Tonbridge Angels 9 18 9 +9 14
2 Dorking Wanderers 9 18 13 +5 13
3 Billericay Town 9 18 14 +4 15
4 Maidstone Utd 9 17 9 +8 19
5 Weston-super-Mare 9 16 7 +9 17
6 Salisbury 9 16 7 +9 15
7 Chesham United 9 16 15 +1 10
8 Folkestone Invicta 8 15 9 +6 12
9 Dover 9 15 16 -1 14
10 Torquay 9 13 11 +2 13
11 Braintree 8 13 18 -5 10
12 Truro City 8 11 4 +7 14
13 Farnham Town 8 11 10 +1 13
14 Hampton & Richmond 9 11 23 -12 8
15 Dagenham & Redbridge 9 9 7 +2 16
16 Chelmsford City 8 9 8 +1 10
17 Horsham 8 9 10 -1 10
18 Slough Town 8 9 21 -12 3
19 Hemel Hempstead Town 9 8 10 -2 10
20 Maidenhead 9 8 11 -3 10
21 AFC Totton 8 8 13 -5 10
22 Farnborough 8 6 11 -5 10
23 Walton & Hersham 8 4 24 -20 1
24 Ebbsfleet United 3 3 1 +2 5