Predictions / Football / Iceland. Úrvalsdeild / Keflavik vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar

Prediction Audit: Keflavik vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Keflavik Keflavik
Aug 23, 2026 - 17:00
1 1.29
0 1.31
xG Accuracy: 64%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar IBV Vestmannaeyjar

The model missed the final outcome (Keflavik win 1–0).

The model had projected IBV Vestmannaeyjar at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar Keflavik ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Keflavik higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Keflavik -10.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Keflavik 34.7% 44.7% -10.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 22.5% +7.2 pp Model Higher
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 35.6% 32.8% +2.8 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Keflavik's win probability at 44.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 10.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Keflavik win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Keflavik. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned IBV Vestmannaeyjar; match finished Keflavik

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on IBV Vestmannaeyjar by 10.0 percentage points (45.6% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 23, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Keflavik 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · IBV Vestmannaeyjar 35.6%
    • xG · Keflavik 1.29 — IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1.31
  2. Aug 23, 2026 · 16:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Keflavik 2.13 · Draw 4.23 · IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2.90
    • Implied 1X2 · Keflavik 44.7% · Draw 22.5% · IBV Vestmannaeyjar 32.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 23, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Keflavik 2.13 · Draw 4.23 · IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2.90
    • Implied 1X2 · Keflavik 44.7% · Draw 22.5% · IBV Vestmannaeyjar 32.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 23, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Keflavik win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 17/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 01:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4369520

Closing Odds 2.13
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Keflavik win · Keflavik 1–0 IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Úrvalsdeild
  • Fixture: Keflavik vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-23 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Keflavik 1.29 — IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.6%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Úrvalsdeild Úrvalsdeild — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 22 16 5 1 53
2 Fram Reykjavik 22 13 6 3 45
3 KR Reykjavik 22 13 5 4 44
4 Breidablik 22 8 6 8 30
5 IA Akranes 22 8 6 8 30
6 Keflavik 22 8 4 10 28
7 Stjarnan 22 8 4 10 28
8 Valur Reykjavik 22 8 3 11 27
9 FH hafnarfjordur 22 4 9 9 21
10 Thor Akureyri 22 6 3 13 21
11 KA Akureyri 22 5 5 12 20
12 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 22 4 6 12 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 KR Reykjavik 22 74 49 +25 44
2 Vikingur Reykjavik 22 67 21 +46 53
3 Fram Reykjavik 22 56 42 +14 45
4 Breidablik 22 43 41 +2 30
5 Stjarnan 22 42 50 -8 28
6 IA Akranes 22 39 41 -2 30
7 Valur Reykjavik 22 39 45 -6 27
8 KA Akureyri 22 35 48 -13 20
9 Keflavik 22 33 38 -5 28
10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 22 32 45 -13 18
11 FH hafnarfjordur 22 27 39 -12 21
12 Thor Akureyri 22 22 50 -28 21