Predictions / Football / Cyprus. Super Cup / Omonia Nicosia vs Pafos

Prediction Audit: Omonia Nicosia vs Pafos Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Omonia Nicosia Omonia Nicosia
Sep 03, 2026 - 16:30
0 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 64%
Pafos Pafos

The model missed the final outcome (Pafos win 0–1).

The model had projected Omonia Nicosia at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Omonia Nicosia Pafos ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Omonia Nicosia -4.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Omonia Nicosia 36.1% 40.9% -4.7 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 26.7% +2.9 pp Aligned
Pafos 34.2% 32.4% +1.8 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Pafos win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Omonia Nicosia; match finished Pafos

Market lesson

The full-time result was Pafos win 0–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 03, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Omonia Nicosia 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Pafos 34.2%
    • xG · Omonia Nicosia 1.32 — Pafos 1.28
  2. Sep 03, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Omonia Nicosia 2.27 · Draw 3.47 · Pafos 2.86
    • Implied 1X2 · Omonia Nicosia 40.9% · Draw 26.7% · Pafos 32.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 03, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Omonia Nicosia 2.27 · Draw 3.47 · Pafos 2.86
    • Implied 1X2 · Omonia Nicosia 40.9% · Draw 26.7% · Pafos 32.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 03, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Pafos win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 76/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 28, 2026 · 01:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5734323

Closing Odds 2.27
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Pafos win · Omonia Nicosia 0–1 Pafos
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Super Cup
  • Fixture: Omonia Nicosia vs Pafos
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-03 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Omonia Nicosia 1.32 — Pafos 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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