Predictions / Football / USA. USL League One / Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Boise

Prediction Audit: Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Boise Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Chattanooga Red Wolves Chattanooga Red Wolves
Aug 29, 2026 - 23:00
2 1.34
3 1.26
xG Accuracy: 52%
⚽
Boise

The model missed the final outcome (Boise win 2–3).

The model had projected Chattanooga Red Wolves at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Chattanooga Red Wolves Boise ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Boise higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Boise -7.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Chattanooga Red Wolves 37.1% 32.9% +4.1 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 26.2% +3.4 pp Aligned
Boise 33.3% 40.9% -7.5 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Boise's win probability at 40.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 7.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Boise win 2–3.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Boise. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Chattanooga Red Wolves; match finished Boise

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Chattanooga Red Wolves by 7.5 percentage points (44.6% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 29, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Chattanooga Red Wolves 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Boise 33.4%
    • xG · Chattanooga Red Wolves 1.34 — Boise 1.26
  2. Aug 29, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Chattanooga Red Wolves 2.78 · Draw 3.49 · Boise 2.24
    • Implied 1X2 · Chattanooga Red Wolves 32.9% · Draw 26.2% · Boise 40.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 29, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Chattanooga Red Wolves 2.78 · Draw 3.49 · Boise 2.24
    • Implied 1X2 · Chattanooga Red Wolves 32.9% · Draw 26.2% · Boise 40.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 29, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Boise win · 2–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 21/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 05:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5164511

Closing Odds 2.24
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Boise win · Chattanooga Red Wolves 2–3 Boise
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: USL League One
  • Fixture: Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Boise
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-29 23:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Chattanooga Red Wolves 1.34 — Boise 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 21, 2026 (UTC)

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USL League One USL League One — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Charlotte Independence 27 17 5 5 56
2 Union Omaha 27 17 4 6 55
3 Forward Madison 26 14 6 6 48
4 One Knoxville 26 13 8 5 47
5 Boise 26 13 6 7 45
6 Chattanooga Red Wolves 25 13 3 9 42
7 Spokane Velocity 23 12 3 8 39
8 Fort Wayne 25 10 6 9 36
9 Corpus Christi 26 8 9 9 33
10 Alta 27 8 8 11 32
11 Portland Hearts of Pine 26 7 8 11 29
12 Naples 25 8 3 14 27
13 Sarasota Paradise 25 7 6 12 27
14 Westchester SC 26 7 5 14 26
15 Greenville Triumph 25 6 5 14 23
16 NY Cosmos 25 6 4 15 22
17 Richmond Kickers 26 5 5 16 20
18 Tormenta 0 0 0 0 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Charlotte Independence 27 63 39 +24 56
2 Union Omaha 27 48 29 +19 55
3 Forward Madison 26 47 26 +21 48
4 Chattanooga Red Wolves 25 46 37 +9 42
5 Westchester SC 26 44 44 0 26
6 One Knoxville 26 43 29 +14 47
7 Boise 26 41 35 +6 45
8 Fort Wayne 25 39 33 +6 36
9 Portland Hearts of Pine 26 38 45 -7 29
10 Spokane Velocity 23 34 31 +3 39
11 Alta 27 34 37 -3 32
12 NY Cosmos 25 31 50 -19 22
13 Corpus Christi 26 30 36 -6 33
14 Greenville Triumph 25 29 42 -13 23
15 Sarasota Paradise 25 27 39 -12 27
16 Naples 25 27 41 -14 27
17 Richmond Kickers 26 25 53 -28 20
18 Tormenta 0 0 0 0 0
USL League One USA. USL League One Predictions