Predictions / Football / Sweden. Ettan - Södra / AFC Malmo vs Lund

Prediction Audit: AFC Malmo vs Lund Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

⚽
AFC Malmo
Aug 22, 2026 - 11:00
2 1.34
5 1.26
xG Accuracy: 30%
Lund Lund

The model missed the final outcome (Lund win 2–5).

The model had projected AFC Malmo at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 AFC Malmo Lund ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-5 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices AFC Malmo higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: AFC Malmo -10.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
AFC Malmo 37.1% 47.4% -10.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 25.7% +3.9 pp Aligned
Lund 33.3% 26.9% +6.4 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates AFC Malmo's win probability at 47.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 10.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Lund win 2–5.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about AFC Malmo than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned AFC Malmo; match finished Lund

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on AFC Malmo by 10.3 percentage points (47.4% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 22, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · AFC Malmo 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Lund 33.4%
    • xG · AFC Malmo 1.34 — Lund 1.26
  2. Aug 22, 2026 · 10:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · AFC Malmo 1.93 · Draw 3.56 · Lund 3.40
    • Implied 1X2 · AFC Malmo 47.4% · Draw 25.7% · Lund 26.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 22, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · AFC Malmo 1.93 · Draw 3.56 · Lund 3.40
    • Implied 1X2 · AFC Malmo 47.4% · Draw 25.7% · Lund 26.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 22, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Lund win · 2–5
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 48/100
Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 01:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4214591

Closing Odds 1.93
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Lund win · AFC Malmo 2–5 Lund
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Ettan - Södra
  • Fixture: AFC Malmo vs Lund
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): AFC Malmo 1.34 — Lund 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Ettan - Södra Ettan - Södra — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 trelleborgs FF 24 15 6 3 51
2 Atvidabergs FF 24 13 6 5 45
3 Hässleholms IF 24 13 3 8 42
4 Lund 24 11 8 5 41
5 AFC Malmo 24 10 8 6 38
6 Rosengård 24 10 8 6 38
7 Trollhättan 24 10 7 7 37
8 Jonkopings Sodra 24 9 6 9 33
9 Tvååker 24 9 6 9 33
10 Olympic 24 9 3 12 30
11 Skövde AIK 24 7 9 8 30
12 Eskilsminne 24 8 5 11 29
13 Kristianstad 24 7 6 11 27
14 Laholm 24 6 4 14 22
15 Angelholms FF 24 3 9 12 18
16 Utsikten 24 2 6 16 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 trelleborgs FF 24 53 28 +25 51
2 Atvidabergs FF 24 48 34 +14 45
3 Lund 24 46 28 +18 41
4 Hässleholms IF 24 44 29 +15 42
5 AFC Malmo 24 44 35 +9 38
6 Rosengård 24 41 34 +7 38
7 Trollhättan 24 41 36 +5 37
8 Olympic 24 41 46 -5 30
9 Eskilsminne 24 39 44 -5 29
10 Tvååker 24 32 37 -5 33
11 Laholm 24 31 43 -12 22
12 Jonkopings Sodra 24 29 25 +4 33
13 Kristianstad 24 29 36 -7 27
14 Skövde AIK 24 28 36 -8 30
15 Angelholms FF 24 28 47 -19 18
16 Utsikten 24 21 57 -36 12
Ettan - Södra Sweden. Ettan - Södra Predictions