Predictions / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Norra Götaland / Herrestads vs Vänersborgs IF

Prediction Audit: Herrestads vs Vänersborgs IF Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Herrestads Herrestads
Aug 21, 2026 - 17:00
3 1.46
0 1.14
xG Accuracy: 48%
Vänersborgs IF Vänersborgs IF

AI correctly predicted the Herrestads win.

The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Herrestads Herrestads ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Herrestads win 3–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 21, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Herrestads 1.46 — Vänersborgs IF 1.14
  2. Aug 21, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Herrestads win · 3–0
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 01:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4028613

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Herrestads win · Herrestads 3–0 Vänersborgs IF
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Division 2 - Norra Götaland
  • Fixture: Herrestads vs Vänersborgs IF
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-21 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.9% · Draw 29.2% · Away 27.9%
  • xG (showing): Herrestads 1.46 — Vänersborgs IF 1.14 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Norra Götaland Division 2 - Norra Götaland — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Husqvarna 24 20 3 1 63
2 Skara 25 17 5 3 56
3 IFK Skövde 25 14 5 6 47
4 Ahlafors 24 12 7 5 43
5 Grebbestad 24 12 3 9 39
6 Herrestads 24 10 7 7 37
7 Stenungsund 24 9 6 9 33
8 Vänersborgs FK 25 8 5 12 29
9 Lidköping 24 7 6 11 27
10 Motala 24 6 8 10 26
11 Kumla 25 6 8 11 26
12 Tord 24 4 9 11 21
13 IF Karlstad II 24 2 7 15 13
14 Vänersborgs IF 24 2 3 19 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Husqvarna 24 58 18 +40 63
2 Ahlafors 24 55 28 +27 43
3 Skara 25 52 26 +26 56
4 Herrestads 24 44 43 +1 37
5 Stenungsund 24 43 33 +10 33
6 Grebbestad 24 43 36 +7 39
7 IFK Skövde 25 42 26 +16 47
8 Motala 24 35 38 -3 26
9 Vänersborgs FK 25 33 43 -10 29
10 Lidköping 24 29 42 -13 27
11 Tord 24 29 43 -14 21
12 Kumla 25 26 45 -19 26
13 IF Karlstad II 24 24 47 -23 13
14 Vänersborgs IF 24 24 69 -45 9
Division 2 - Norra Götaland Sweden. Division 2 - Norra Götaland Predictions