Predictions / Football / Paraguay. Division Intermedia / Deportivo Capiata vs Guairena FC

Prediction Audit: Deportivo Capiata vs Guairena FC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Deportivo Capiata Deportivo Capiata
Aug 21, 2026 - 19:00
0 1.34
0 1.26
xG Accuracy: 49%
Guairena FC Guairena FC

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Deportivo Capiata at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Deportivo Capiata Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Deportivo Capiata; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 21, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Deportivo Capiata 1.34 — Guairena FC 1.26
  2. Aug 21, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 18, 2026 · 01:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4452024

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Deportivo Capiata 0–0 Guairena FC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division Intermedia
  • Fixture: Deportivo Capiata vs Guairena FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-21 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Deportivo Capiata 1.34 — Guairena FC 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Division Intermedia Division Intermedia — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Deportivo Santani 27 17 3 7 54
2 General Caballero 27 16 5 6 53
3 12 de Junio VH 27 14 8 5 50
4 Benjamín Aceval 27 12 6 9 42
5 SOL DE America 27 9 14 4 41
6 Independiente F.b.c. 27 10 10 7 40
7 Sportivo Carapeguá 27 11 6 10 39
8 Paraguari AC 27 11 5 11 38
9 Atlético Tembetary 27 10 6 11 36
10 Resistencia 27 9 8 10 35
11 Fernando De La Mora 27 9 7 11 34
12 Deportivo Capiata 27 6 11 10 29
13 3 de Noviembre 27 6 8 13 26
14 Guairena FC 27 6 7 14 25
15 Tacuary 27 4 12 11 24
16 Encarnación 27 6 4 17 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 General Caballero 27 54 33 +21 53
2 Deportivo Santani 27 46 25 +21 54
3 Benjamín Aceval 27 42 35 +7 42
4 Independiente F.b.c. 27 40 35 +5 40
5 Atlético Tembetary 27 39 42 -3 36
6 12 de Junio VH 27 36 27 +9 50
7 Paraguari AC 27 36 35 +1 38
8 SOL DE America 27 33 25 +8 41
9 3 de Noviembre 27 33 40 -7 26
10 Sportivo Carapeguá 27 32 39 -7 39
11 Resistencia 27 31 32 -1 35
12 Deportivo Capiata 27 31 37 -6 29
13 Fernando De La Mora 27 30 37 -7 34
14 Tacuary 27 30 43 -13 24
15 Encarnación 27 25 39 -14 22
16 Guairena FC 27 22 36 -14 25
Division Intermedia Paraguay. Division Intermedia Predictions