Predictions / Football / World. UEFA Europa Conference League / Vikingur Reykjavik vs Borac Banja Luka

Prediction Audit: Vikingur Reykjavik vs Borac Banja Luka Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Vikingur Reykjavik Vikingur Reykjavik
Aug 20, 2026 - 18:00
1 1.43
3 0.99
xG Accuracy: 51%
Borac Banja Luka Borac Banja Luka

The model missed the final outcome (Borac Banja Luka win 1–3).

The model had projected Vikingur Reykjavik at 45.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Vikingur Reykjavik Borac Banja Luka ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Vikingur Reykjavik higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Vikingur Reykjavik -13.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Vikingur Reykjavik 45.6% 58.6% -13.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 30.0% 23.4% +6.6 pp Model Higher
Borac Banja Luka 24.5% 18.0% +6.5 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Vikingur Reykjavik's win probability at 58.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 45.6%, a difference of 13.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Borac Banja Luka win 1–3.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Vikingur Reykjavik than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Vikingur Reykjavik by 13.1 percentage points (58.7% vs model 45.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 20, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Vikingur Reykjavik 45.5% · Draw 30.0% · Borac Banja Luka 24.5%
    • xG · Vikingur Reykjavik 1.43 — Borac Banja Luka 0.99
  2. Aug 20, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Vikingur Reykjavik 1.58 · Draw 3.96 · Borac Banja Luka 5.16
    • Implied 1X2 · Vikingur Reykjavik 58.6% · Draw 23.4% · Borac Banja Luka 18.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 20, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Vikingur Reykjavik 1.58 · Draw 3.96 · Borac Banja Luka 5.16
    • Implied 1X2 · Vikingur Reykjavik 58.6% · Draw 23.4% · Borac Banja Luka 18.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 20, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Borac Banja Luka win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 34/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 01:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4023125

Closing Odds 1.58
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Borac Banja Luka win · Vikingur Reykjavik 1–3 Borac Banja Luka
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: UEFA Europa Conference League
  • Fixture: Vikingur Reykjavik vs Borac Banja Luka
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-20 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.5% · Draw 30.0% · Away 24.5%
  • xG (showing): Vikingur Reykjavik 1.43 — Borac Banja Luka 0.99 (total xG ≈ 2.42)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 56.5% · Over 2.5 43.5%); BTTS No (Yes 49.4% · No 50.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 49.4% · No 50.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (12.7%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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UEFA Europa Conference League UEFA Europa Conference League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Aarhus 0 0 0 0 0
2 Ajax 0 0 0 0 0
3 Atalanta 0 0 0 0 0
4 Borac Banja Luka 0 0 0 0 0
5 SC Braga 0 0 0 0 0
6 Brann 0 0 0 0 0
7 Brighton 0 0 0 0 0
8 FC Copenhagen 0 0 0 0 0
9 FK Crvena Zvezda 0 0 0 0 0
10 CSKA Sofia 0 0 0 0 0
11 Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0 0 0 0 0
12 SC Freiburg 0 0 0 0 0
13 Gent 0 0 0 0 0
14 Getafe 0 0 0 0 0
15 HNK Hajduk Split 0 0 0 0 0
16 Heart Of Midlothian 0 0 0 0 0
17 Saburtalo 0 0 0 0 0
18 Inter Club d'Escaldes 0 0 0 0 0
19 FK Jablonec 0 0 0 0 0
20 Kairat Almaty 0 0 0 0 0
21 Kauno Žalgiris 0 0 0 0 0
22 KuPS 0 0 0 0 0
23 Lincoln Red Imps FC 0 0 0 0 0
24 FC Lugano 0 0 0 0 0
25 FC Midtjylland 0 0 0 0 0
26 Mjallby AIF 0 0 0 0 0
27 Monaco 0 0 0 0 0
28 FC Nordsjaelland 0 0 0 0 0
29 Pafos 0 0 0 0 0
30 Panathinaikos 0 0 0 0 0
31 Riga 0 0 0 0 0
32 St. Truiden 0 0 0 0 0
33 FC Thun 0 0 0 0 0
34 Trabzonspor 0 0 0 0 0
35 Twente 0 0 0 0 0
36 Universitatea Craiova 0 0 0 0 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Aarhus 0 0 0 0 0
2 Ajax 0 0 0 0 0
3 Atalanta 0 0 0 0 0
4 Borac Banja Luka 0 0 0 0 0
5 SC Braga 0 0 0 0 0
6 Brann 0 0 0 0 0
7 Brighton 0 0 0 0 0
8 FC Copenhagen 0 0 0 0 0
9 FK Crvena Zvezda 0 0 0 0 0
10 CSKA Sofia 0 0 0 0 0
11 Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0 0 0 0 0
12 SC Freiburg 0 0 0 0 0
13 Gent 0 0 0 0 0
14 Getafe 0 0 0 0 0
15 HNK Hajduk Split 0 0 0 0 0
16 Heart Of Midlothian 0 0 0 0 0
17 Saburtalo 0 0 0 0 0
18 Inter Club d'Escaldes 0 0 0 0 0
19 FK Jablonec 0 0 0 0 0
20 Kairat Almaty 0 0 0 0 0
21 Kauno Žalgiris 0 0 0 0 0
22 KuPS 0 0 0 0 0
23 Lincoln Red Imps FC 0 0 0 0 0
24 FC Lugano 0 0 0 0 0
25 FC Midtjylland 0 0 0 0 0
26 Mjallby AIF 0 0 0 0 0
27 Monaco 0 0 0 0 0
28 FC Nordsjaelland 0 0 0 0 0
29 Pafos 0 0 0 0 0
30 Panathinaikos 0 0 0 0 0
31 Riga 0 0 0 0 0
32 St. Truiden 0 0 0 0 0
33 FC Thun 0 0 0 0 0
34 Trabzonspor 0 0 0 0 0
35 Twente 0 0 0 0 0
36 Universitatea Craiova 0 0 0 0 0