Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 3 / Zagłębie Lubin II vs Miedź Legnica II

Prediction Audit: Zagłębie Lubin II vs Miedź Legnica II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Zagłębie Lubin II Zagłębie Lubin II
Aug 22, 2026 - 10:00
3 1.27
2 1.33
xG Accuracy: 52%
Miedź Legnica II Miedź Legnica II

The model missed the final outcome (Zagłębie Lubin II win 3–2).

The model had projected Miedź Legnica II at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Miedź Legnica II Zagłębie Lubin II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Zagłębie Lubin II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Zagłębie Lubin II -12.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Zagłębie Lubin II 33.8% 46.4% -12.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 21.8% +7.9 pp Model Higher
Miedź Legnica II 36.6% 31.9% +4.7 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Zagłębie Lubin II's win probability at 46.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 12.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Zagłębie Lubin II win 3–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Zagłębie Lubin II than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Miedź Legnica II; match finished Zagłębie Lubin II

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Miedź Legnica II by 12.6 percentage points (49.2% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 22, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Zagłębie Lubin II 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Miedź Legnica II 36.6%
    • xG · Zagłębie Lubin II 1.27 — Miedź Legnica II 1.33
  2. Aug 22, 2026 · 09:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Zagłębie Lubin II 1.92 · Draw 4.09 · Miedź Legnica II 2.79
    • Implied 1X2 · Zagłębie Lubin II 46.4% · Draw 21.8% · Miedź Legnica II 31.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 22, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Zagłębie Lubin II 1.92 · Draw 4.09 · Miedź Legnica II 2.79
    • Implied 1X2 · Zagłębie Lubin II 46.4% · Draw 21.8% · Miedź Legnica II 31.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 22, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Zagłębie Lubin II win · 3–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 12/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 01:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4213352

Closing Odds 1.92
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Zagłębie Lubin II win · Zagłębie Lubin II 3–2 Miedź Legnica II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: III Liga - Group 3
  • Fixture: Zagłębie Lubin II vs Miedź Legnica II
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Zagłębie Lubin II 1.27 — Miedź Legnica II 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 3 III Liga - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Zagłębie Lubin II 9 6 3 0 21
2 Sparta Katowice 9 6 2 1 20
3 Odra Bytom Odrzański 9 6 2 1 20
4 Barycz Sułów 9 6 1 2 19
5 Zaglebie Sosnowiec 9 5 1 3 16
6 Górnik Polkowice 9 4 2 3 14
7 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 9 3 3 3 12
8 Kluczbork 9 4 0 5 12
9 Warta Gorzów 9 3 3 3 12
10 Miedź Legnica II 9 3 2 4 11
11 ROW Rybnik 9 3 2 4 11
12 Stal Brzeg 9 3 2 4 11
13 Goczałkowice Zdrój 9 3 2 4 11
14 Stilon Gorzów 9 2 4 3 10
15 Rakow II 9 2 3 4 9
16 Ślęza Wrocław 9 2 0 7 6
17 Polonia Nysa 9 1 2 6 5
18 Carina Gubin 9 1 2 6 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Miedź Legnica II 9 23 18 +5 11
2 Zagłębie Lubin II 9 19 9 +10 21
3 ROW Rybnik 9 18 15 +3 11
4 Górnik Polkowice 9 18 16 +2 14
5 Sparta Katowice 9 16 6 +10 20
6 Stal Brzeg 9 15 12 +3 11
7 Barycz Sułów 9 14 8 +6 19
8 Zaglebie Sosnowiec 9 14 9 +5 16
9 Stilon Gorzów 9 14 13 +1 10
10 Ślęza Wrocław 9 14 25 -11 6
11 Rakow II 9 12 17 -5 9
12 Odra Bytom Odrzański 9 11 4 +7 20
13 Goczałkowice Zdrój 9 11 13 -2 11
14 Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 9 10 7 +3 12
15 Kluczbork 9 9 14 -5 12
16 Warta Gorzów 9 9 15 -6 12
17 Polonia Nysa 9 8 21 -13 5
18 Carina Gubin 9 6 19 -13 5
III Liga - Group 3 Poland. III Liga - Group 3 Predictions