Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 4 / Chełmianka Chełm vs Wisłoka Dębica

Prediction Audit: Chełmianka Chełm vs Wisłoka Dębica Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Chełmianka Chełm Chełmianka Chełm
Aug 19, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.46
1 1.14
xG Accuracy: 83%
Wisłoka Dębica Wisłoka Dębica

AI correctly predicted the Chełmianka Chełm win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Chełmianka Chełm Chełmianka Chełm ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Chełmianka Chełm higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Chełmianka Chełm -18.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Chełmianka Chełm 42.9% 61.6% -18.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.2% 21.5% +7.7 pp Model Higher
Wisłoka Dębica 27.9% 16.9% +11.1 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Chełmianka Chełm's win probability at 61.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.9%, a difference of 18.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Chełmianka Chełm win 2–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Chełmianka Chełm than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Chełmianka Chełm higher (61.6% vs model 42.9%, 18.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Chełmianka Chełm win 2–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 19, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Chełmianka Chełm 42.9% · Draw 29.2% · Wisłoka Dębica 27.9%
    • xG · Chełmianka Chełm 1.46 — Wisłoka Dębica 1.14
  2. Aug 19, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Chełmianka Chełm 1.44 · Draw 4.12 · Wisłoka Dębica 5.26
    • Implied 1X2 · Chełmianka Chełm 61.6% · Draw 21.5% · Wisłoka Dębica 16.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 19, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Chełmianka Chełm 1.44 · Draw 4.12 · Wisłoka Dębica 5.26
    • Implied 1X2 · Chełmianka Chełm 61.6% · Draw 21.5% · Wisłoka Dębica 16.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 19, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Chełmianka Chełm win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (19 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 6/100
Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 13, 2026 · 01:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3817168

Closing Odds 1.44
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Chełmianka Chełm win · Chełmianka Chełm 2–1 Wisłoka Dębica
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: III Liga - Group 4
  • Fixture: Chełmianka Chełm vs Wisłoka Dębica
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-19 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.9% · Draw 29.2% · Away 27.9%
  • xG (showing): Chełmianka Chełm 1.46 — Wisłoka Dębica 1.14 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 4 III Liga - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Chełmianka Chełm 10 8 2 0 26
2 KSZO 1929 9 5 4 0 19
3 Czarni Połaniec 10 6 1 3 19
4 Wisłoka Dębica 10 6 1 3 19
5 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 10 5 2 3 17
6 Naprzód 10 5 2 3 17
7 Jarosław 9 5 1 3 16
8 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 10 4 2 4 14
9 Wisła Kraków II 10 3 4 3 13
10 Sokół Kolb. 10 2 6 2 12
11 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 10 3 2 5 11
12 Busko-Zdroj 10 3 2 5 11
13 Hetman Zamosc 9 2 4 3 10
14 Star Starachowice 10 2 4 4 10
15 Korona Kielce II 10 2 2 6 8
16 KS Wieczysta Krakow II 10 2 2 6 8
17 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 10 2 1 7 7
18 Moravia Morawica 9 2 0 7 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Jarosław 9 24 15 +9 16
2 Naprzód 10 24 20 +4 17
3 Korona Kielce II 10 21 26 -5 8
4 Czarni Połaniec 10 17 15 +2 19
5 Chełmianka Chełm 10 16 3 +13 26
6 Hetman Zamosc 9 16 17 -1 10
7 Wiślanie Jaśkowice 10 15 10 +5 17
8 KSZO 1929 9 14 6 +8 19
9 Wisłoka Dębica 10 14 12 +2 19
10 Busko-Zdroj 10 14 21 -7 11
11 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 10 13 13 0 14
12 Wisła Kraków II 10 13 13 0 13
13 Star Starachowice 10 11 15 -4 10
14 Sokół Kolb. 10 10 10 0 12
15 Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów 10 10 19 -9 7
16 KS Wieczysta Krakow II 10 9 14 -5 8
17 Moravia Morawica 9 9 18 -9 6
18 Podlasie Biała Podlaska 10 8 11 -3 11
III Liga - Group 4 Poland. III Liga - Group 4 Predictions