The model missed the final outcome (Laci win 1–2).
The model had projected Partizani at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Partizani Laci ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partizani | 36.1% | 46.3% | -10.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 29.1% | +0.6 pp | Aligned |
| Laci | 34.2% | 24.6% | +9.7 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Partizani's win probability at 46.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 10.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Laci win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Partizani than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Partizani; match finished Laci
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Partizani by 10.2 percentage points (46.3% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Partizani 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Laci 34.2%
- xG · Partizani 1.32 — Laci 1.28
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Partizani 2.20 · Draw 3.00 · Laci 3.10
- Implied 1X2 · Partizani 40.9% · Draw 30.0% · Laci 29.1%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Partizani 1.92 · Draw 3.06 · Laci 3.62
- Implied 1X2 · Partizani 46.3% · Draw 29.1% · Laci 24.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Laci win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (10 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Superliga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Teuta Durrës | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 2 | Dinamo Tirana | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Laci | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | AF Elbasani | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 6 | Tirana | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Partizani | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 | Vora | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 9 | Skenderbeu Korce | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Vllaznia Shkodër | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Teuta Durrës | 5 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 13 |
| 2 | Dinamo Tirana | 5 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 12 |
| 3 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 4 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 9 |
| 4 | Laci | 5 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 |
| 5 | Tirana | 4 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 4 |
| 6 | Partizani | 4 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 4 |
| 7 | AF Elbasani | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | Skenderbeu Korce | 5 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | Vllaznia Shkodër | 5 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2 |
| 10 | Vora | 5 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 4 |
