Predictions / Football / Serbia. Super Liga / Radnicki NIS vs Radnicki 1923

Prediction Audit: Radnicki NIS vs Radnicki 1923 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Radnicki NIS Radnicki NIS
Aug 29, 2026 - 19:00
1 0.90
1 1.39
xG Accuracy: 87%
Radnicki 1923 Radnicki 1923

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Radnicki 1923 at 44.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Radnicki 1923 Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 0-2, 1-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Radnicki NIS higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Radnicki NIS -11.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Radnicki NIS 25.3% 36.9% -11.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 30.6% 30.2% +0.4 pp Aligned
Radnicki 1923 44.1% 32.9% +11.2 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Radnicki NIS's win probability at 36.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 25.3%, a difference of 11.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Radnicki NIS than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • 1X2: model leaned Radnicki 1923; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Radnicki 1923 by 11.7 percentage points (55.8% vs model 44.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 29, 2026 · 20:02 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Radnicki NIS 25.3% · Draw 30.7% · Radnicki 1923 44.1%
    • xG · Radnicki NIS 0.90 — Radnicki 1923 1.39
  2. Aug 29, 2026 · 18:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Radnicki NIS 2.51 · Draw 3.07 · Radnicki 1923 2.82
    • Implied 1X2 · Radnicki NIS 36.9% · Draw 30.2% · Radnicki 1923 32.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 29, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Radnicki NIS 2.51 · Draw 3.07 · Radnicki 1923 2.82
    • Implied 1X2 · Radnicki NIS 36.9% · Draw 30.2% · Radnicki 1923 32.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 29, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 14/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 04:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5161396

Closing Odds 2.51
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Radnicki NIS 1–1 Radnicki 1923
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Super Liga
  • Fixture: Radnicki NIS vs Radnicki 1923
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-29 19:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 25.3% · Draw 30.7% · Away 44.1%
  • xG (showing): Radnicki NIS 0.9 — Radnicki 1923 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.29)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 59.9% · Over 2.5 40.1%); BTTS No (Yes 46.2% · No 53.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 46.2% · No 53.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (14.1%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Super Liga Super Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FK Crvena Zvezda 10 9 1 0 28
2 Vojvodina 10 7 1 2 22
3 Radnicki 1923 9 5 2 2 17
4 Mladost Lucani 10 4 4 2 16
5 IMT Novi Beograd 10 4 3 3 15
6 Železničar Pančevo 9 4 2 3 14
7 Radnik Surdulica 10 3 5 2 14
8 Novi Pazar 10 3 4 3 13
9 Cukaricki 10 3 2 5 11
10 OFK Beograd 10 2 3 5 9
11 FK Partizan 9 2 2 5 8
12 Radnicki NIS 9 2 2 5 8
13 Macva 10 2 2 6 8
14 Zemun 10 0 3 7 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FK Crvena Zvezda 10 24 3 +21 28
2 Vojvodina 10 21 10 +11 22
3 Radnicki 1923 9 17 9 +8 17
4 FK Partizan 9 17 19 -2 8
5 Železničar Pančevo 9 14 10 +4 14
6 Radnik Surdulica 10 14 15 -1 14
7 OFK Beograd 10 13 21 -8 9
8 IMT Novi Beograd 10 12 7 +5 15
9 Cukaricki 10 12 18 -6 11
10 Novi Pazar 10 10 11 -1 13
11 Mladost Lucani 10 10 12 -2 16
12 Radnicki NIS 9 6 11 -5 8
13 Macva 10 6 17 -11 8
14 Zemun 10 6 19 -13 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Vojvodina 10 7.0 1.1 +5.9 22
2 FK Crvena Zvezda 10 5.9 1.2 +4.7 28
3 Radnicki 1923 9 1.9 1.1 +0.8 17
4 FK Partizan 9 3.7 3.1 +0.6 8
5 Cukaricki 10 1.8 1.4 +0.4 11
6 Radnik Surdulica 10 0.8 0.5 +0.3 14
7 Radnicki NIS 9 1.1 0.9 +0.2 8
8 Železničar Pančevo 9 0.9 1.1 -0.2 14
9 IMT Novi Beograd 10 1.4 1.8 -0.4 15
10 Novi Pazar 10 1.1 1.9 -0.8 13
11 OFK Beograd 10 0.3 2.1 -1.8 9
12 Macva 10 0.5 4.7 -4.2 8
13 Zemun 10 1.9 7.4 -5.5 3
14 Mladost Lucani 10 — — — 16