Predictions / Football / England. Non League Premier - Northern / Leek Town vs Warrington Town

Prediction Audit: Leek Town vs Warrington Town Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Leek Town Leek Town
Sep 01, 2026 - 18:45
1 1.42
2 1.18
xG Accuracy: 71%
Warrington Town Warrington Town

The model missed the final outcome (Warrington Town win 1–2).

The model had projected Leek Town at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Leek Town Warrington Town ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Warrington Town higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Warrington Town -10.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Leek Town 40.9% 35.4% +5.5 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.4% 24.5% +4.9 pp Aligned
Warrington Town 29.7% 40.1% -10.4 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Warrington Town's win probability at 40.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 29.7%, a difference of 10.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Warrington Town win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Warrington Town than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Leek Town; match finished Warrington Town

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Leek Town by 10.4 percentage points (51.3% vs model 40.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 01, 2026 · 18:46 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Leek Town 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Warrington Town 29.6%
    • xG · Leek Town 1.42 — Warrington Town 1.18
  2. Sep 01, 2026 · 18:16 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Leek Town 2.52 · Draw 3.66 · Warrington Town 2.30
    • Implied 1X2 · Leek Town 35.9% · Draw 24.7% · Warrington Town 39.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 01, 2026 · 18:46 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Leek Town 2.59 · Draw 3.74 · Warrington Town 2.29
    • Implied 1X2 · Leek Town 35.4% · Draw 24.5% · Warrington Town 40.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 01, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Warrington Town win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 16/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 26, 2026 · 02:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5506516

Closing Odds 2.29
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Warrington Town win · Leek Town 1–2 Warrington Town
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Non League Premier - Northern
  • Fixture: Leek Town vs Warrington Town
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-01 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.6%
  • xG (showing): Leek Town 1.42 — Warrington Town 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Non League Premier - Northern Non League Premier - Northern — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Cleethorpes Town 10 7 2 1 23
2 Avro 9 7 1 1 22
3 Redcar Athletic 10 6 4 0 22
4 Guiseley AFC 9 6 1 2 19
5 Warrington Town 9 5 2 2 17
6 Bury 9 5 1 3 16
7 Curzon Ashton 9 5 1 3 16
8 Workington 9 5 1 3 16
9 Gainsborough Trinity 9 4 1 4 13
10 Rylands 9 4 1 4 13
11 Alfreton Town 9 4 0 5 12
12 Whitby Town 9 4 0 5 12
13 Ashton United 9 3 2 4 11
14 Hyde United 10 3 2 5 11
15 AFC Emley 9 2 4 3 10
16 Lancaster City 9 3 1 5 10
17 Leek Town 10 2 3 5 9
18 Bamber Bridge 10 2 3 5 9
19 Stockton Town 10 2 2 6 8
20 Ilkeston Town 9 2 1 6 7
21 Quorn 9 1 3 5 6
22 United of Manchester 9 1 2 6 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Avro 9 28 16 +12 22
2 Cleethorpes Town 10 25 6 +19 23
3 Guiseley AFC 9 22 10 +12 19
4 Redcar Athletic 10 19 7 +12 22
5 Bury 9 19 8 +11 16
6 Leek Town 10 19 20 -1 9
7 Curzon Ashton 9 18 10 +8 16
8 Warrington Town 9 18 14 +4 17
9 Workington 9 17 15 +2 16
10 Alfreton Town 9 15 10 +5 12
11 Gainsborough Trinity 9 14 12 +2 13
12 Whitby Town 9 14 24 -10 12
13 Bamber Bridge 10 14 27 -13 9
14 Stockton Town 10 13 20 -7 8
15 Rylands 9 12 13 -1 13
16 United of Manchester 9 12 19 -7 5
17 Quorn 9 12 23 -11 6
18 Hyde United 10 11 19 -8 11
19 Ashton United 9 10 9 +1 11
20 Lancaster City 9 9 17 -8 10
21 AFC Emley 9 8 15 -7 10
22 Ilkeston Town 9 6 21 -15 7
Non League Premier - Northern England. Non League Premier - Northern Predictions