AI correctly predicted the Vojvodina U19 win.
The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Vojvodina U19 Vojvodina U19 ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vojvodina U19 | 36.1% | 54.4% | -18.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 22.8% | +6.8 pp | Model Higher |
| Cukaricki U19 | 34.2% | 22.8% | +11.5 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Vojvodina U19's win probability at 54.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 18.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Vojvodina U19 win 3–2).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Vojvodina U19 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Vojvodina U19 higher (54.4% vs model 36.1%, 18.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Vojvodina U19 win 3–2).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 26, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Vojvodina U19 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Cukaricki U19 34.2%
- xG · Vojvodina U19 1.32 — Cukaricki U19 1.28
-
Aug 26, 2026 · 15:03 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Vojvodina U19 1.63 · Draw 3.89 · Cukaricki U19 3.90
- Implied 1X2 · Vojvodina U19 54.4% · Draw 22.8% · Cukaricki U19 22.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 26, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Vojvodina U19 1.63 · Draw 3.89 · Cukaricki U19 3.90
- Implied 1X2 · Vojvodina U19 54.4% · Draw 22.8% · Cukaricki U19 22.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 26, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Vojvodina U19 win · 3–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (18 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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U19 league — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IMT Novi Beograd U19 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 2 | Vojvodina U19 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 |
| 3 | TSC U19 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 |
| 4 | Vozdovac U19 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Novi Pazar U19 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Usce U19 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Crvena Zvezda U18 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Partizan U19 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Mladost Lucani U19 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 10 | Jedinstvo U. U19 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 11 | Brodarac U19 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 12 | Sp. Subotica U19 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 13 | Cukaricki U19 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 14 | OFK Beograd U19 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IMT Novi Beograd U19 | 7 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 18 |
| 2 | Vojvodina U19 | 7 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 15 |
| 3 | TSC U19 | 7 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 15 |
| 4 | Usce U19 | 7 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Crvena Zvezda U18 | 7 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 11 |
| 6 | Jedinstvo U. U19 | 7 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 7 |
| 7 | Mladost Lucani U19 | 7 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Vozdovac U19 | 7 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 13 |
| 9 | Partizan U19 | 7 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Novi Pazar U19 | 7 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 13 |
| 11 | Cukaricki U19 | 7 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 5 |
| 12 | OFK Beograd U19 | 7 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 3 |
| 13 | Sp. Subotica U19 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 6 |
| 14 | Brodarac U19 | 7 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 7 |
