Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. FNL / Slavia Praha II vs Hanácká

Prediction Audit: Slavia Praha II vs Hanácká Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Slavia Praha II Slavia Praha II
Aug 23, 2026 - 08:15
4 1.23
1 1.37
xG Accuracy: 42%
Hanácká Hanácká

The model missed the final outcome (Slavia Praha II win 4–1).

The model had projected Hanácká at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Hanácká Slavia Praha II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Slavia Praha II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Slavia Praha II -26.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Slavia Praha II 31.9% 57.9% -26.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 22.0% +7.6 pp Model Higher
Hanácká 38.5% 20.1% +18.4 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Slavia Praha II's win probability at 57.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 26.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Slavia Praha II win 4–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Hanácká; match finished Slavia Praha II

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Hanácká by 26.0 percentage points (64.5% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 23, 2026 · 08:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Slavia Praha II 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Hanácká 38.5%
    • xG · Slavia Praha II 1.23 — Hanácká 1.37
  2. Aug 23, 2026 · 07:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Slavia Praha II 1.58 · Draw 4.16 · Hanácká 4.56
    • Implied 1X2 · Slavia Praha II 57.9% · Draw 22.0% · Hanácká 20.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 23, 2026 · 08:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Slavia Praha II 1.58 · Draw 4.16 · Hanácká 4.56
    • Implied 1X2 · Slavia Praha II 57.9% · Draw 22.0% · Hanácká 20.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 23, 2026 · 08:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Slavia Praha II win · 4–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (26 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 00:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4357699

Closing Odds 1.58
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Slavia Praha II win · Slavia Praha II 4–1 Hanácká
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: FNL
  • Fixture: Slavia Praha II vs Hanácká
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-23 08:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.5%
  • xG (showing): Slavia Praha II 1.23 — Hanácká 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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