Predictions / Football / Northern-Ireland. Championship / Newry City AFC vs Warrenpoint Town

Prediction Audit: Newry City AFC vs Warrenpoint Town Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Newry City AFC Newry City AFC
Aug 21, 2026 - 18:45
0 1.25
3 1.35
xG Accuracy: 45%
Warrenpoint Town Warrenpoint Town

AI correctly predicted the Warrenpoint Town win.

The match finished 0–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Warrenpoint Town Warrenpoint Town ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Warrenpoint Town win 0–3).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 21, 2026 · 18:46 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Newry City AFC 1.25 — Warrenpoint Town 1.35
  2. Aug 21, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Warrenpoint Town win · 0–3
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 02:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4039197

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Warrenpoint Town win · Newry City AFC 0–3 Warrenpoint Town
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Championship
  • Fixture: Newry City AFC vs Warrenpoint Town
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-21 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): Newry City AFC 1.25 — Warrenpoint Town 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Championship Matches Track Newry City AFC Next Match Prediction Track Warrenpoint Town Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Newry City AFC & Warrenpoint Town!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Championship Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Annagh United 10 6 3 1 21
2 Glenavon FC 10 6 2 2 20
3 Newington Youth 10 6 2 2 20
4 Queen's University 10 6 1 3 19
5 Institute 10 5 1 4 16
6 H&W Welders 10 5 0 5 15
7 Newry City AFC 10 4 3 3 15
8 Warrenpoint Town 10 4 2 4 14
9 Ballinamallard United 10 4 2 4 14
10 Loughgall 10 3 4 3 13
11 Ards 10 3 3 4 12
12 Dundela 10 2 5 3 11
13 Moyola Park 10 3 2 5 11
14 Strabane Athletic 10 2 3 5 9
15 Rathfriland 10 2 0 8 6
16 Armagh City 10 0 5 5 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Glenavon FC 10 25 13 +12 20
2 Annagh United 10 24 13 +11 21
3 Newington Youth 10 24 18 +6 20
4 Queen's University 10 20 7 +13 19
5 Institute 10 20 17 +3 16
6 Warrenpoint Town 10 18 15 +3 14
7 H&W Welders 10 18 16 +2 15
8 Dundela 10 18 20 -2 11
9 Ballinamallard United 10 16 16 0 14
10 Newry City AFC 10 16 18 -2 15
11 Loughgall 10 14 19 -5 13
12 Ards 10 12 13 -1 12
13 Strabane Athletic 10 10 19 -9 9
14 Moyola Park 10 10 20 -10 11
15 Rathfriland 10 9 22 -13 6
16 Armagh City 10 8 16 -8 5
Championship Northern-Ireland. Championship Predictions