Predictions / Football / Poland. Cup / Tychy 71 vs ŁKS Łódź

Prediction Audit: Tychy 71 vs ŁKS Łódź Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tychy 71 Tychy 71
Sep 03, 2026 - 15:30
1 1.25
0 1.35
xG Accuracy: 64%
ŁKS Łódź ŁKS Łódź

The model missed the final outcome (Tychy 71 win 1–0).

The model had projected ŁKS Łódź at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 ŁKS Łódź Tychy 71 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: ŁKS Łódź -2.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Tychy 71 32.9% 31.9% +0.9 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 28.4% +1.2 pp Aligned
ŁKS Łódź 37.5% 39.7% -2.1 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Tychy 71 win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned ŁKS Łódź; match finished Tychy 71

Market lesson

The full-time result was Tychy 71 win 1–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 03, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Tychy 71 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · ŁKS Łódź 37.6%
    • xG · Tychy 71 1.25 — ŁKS Łódź 1.35
  2. Sep 03, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Tychy 71 2.72 · Draw 3.06 · ŁKS Łódź 2.19
    • Implied 1X2 · Tychy 71 31.9% · Draw 28.4% · ŁKS Łódź 39.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 03, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Tychy 71 2.72 · Draw 3.06 · ŁKS Łódź 2.19
    • Implied 1X2 · Tychy 71 31.9% · Draw 28.4% · ŁKS Łódź 39.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 03, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Tychy 71 win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 89/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 28, 2026 · 01:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5733279

Closing Odds 2.19
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Tychy 71 win · Tychy 71 1–0 ŁKS Łódź
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Cup
  • Fixture: Tychy 71 vs ŁKS Łódź
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-03 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): Tychy 71 1.25 — ŁKS Łódź 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Cup Matches Track Tychy 71 Next Match Prediction Track ŁKS Łódź Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Tychy 71 & ŁKS Łódź!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions