Predictions / Football / Wales. Premier League / Ammanford AFC vs Cardiff MET

Prediction Audit: Ammanford AFC vs Cardiff MET Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ammanford AFC Ammanford AFC
Aug 31, 2026 - 13:30
0 1.34
5 1.26
xG Accuracy: 25%
Cardiff MET Cardiff MET

The model missed the final outcome (Cardiff MET win 0–5).

The model had projected Ammanford AFC at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Ammanford AFC Cardiff MET ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-5 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Cardiff MET higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Cardiff MET -27.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Ammanford AFC 37.1% 16.4% +20.7 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 23.1% +6.5 pp Model Higher
Cardiff MET 33.3% 60.5% -27.2 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Cardiff MET's win probability at 60.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 27.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Cardiff MET win 0–5.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Ammanford AFC by 27.2 percentage points (64.3% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 31, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Ammanford AFC 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Cardiff MET 33.4%
    • xG · Ammanford AFC 1.34 — Cardiff MET 1.26
  2. Aug 31, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Ammanford AFC 5.66 · Draw 4.01 · Cardiff MET 1.53
    • Implied 1X2 · Ammanford AFC 16.4% · Draw 23.1% · Cardiff MET 60.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 31, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Ammanford AFC 5.66 · Draw 4.01 · Cardiff MET 1.53
    • Implied 1X2 · Ammanford AFC 16.4% · Draw 23.1% · Cardiff MET 60.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 31, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Cardiff MET win · 0–5
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (27 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 13/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 25, 2026 · 02:27 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5398644

Closing Odds 1.53
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Cardiff MET win · Ammanford AFC 0–5 Cardiff MET
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Ammanford AFC vs Cardiff MET
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-31 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Ammanford AFC 1.34 — Cardiff MET 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Ammanford AFC
  • Model: 37.0% · Implied: 16.4% · Probability edge: +20.7 pts · Est. EV: +8.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 The New Saints 10 9 1 0 28
2 Penybont 10 7 3 0 24
3 Caernarfon Town 10 7 1 2 22
4 GAP Connah S Quay FC 10 7 1 2 22
5 Barry Town 10 7 1 2 22
6 Colwyn Bay 10 6 1 3 19
7 Llandudno 10 5 1 4 16
8 Airbus UK 10 5 0 5 15
9 Cambrian & Clydach 10 4 3 3 15
10 Cardiff MET 9 4 2 3 14
11 Haverfordwest County AFC 9 3 1 5 10
12 Briton Ferry 10 2 2 6 8
13 Trefelin 10 0 3 7 3
14 Ammanford AFC 10 0 3 7 3
15 Flint Town United 10 0 2 8 2
16 Holywell 10 0 1 9 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Caernarfon Town 10 33 11 +22 22
2 The New Saints 10 26 4 +22 28
3 Barry Town 10 25 16 +9 22
4 GAP Connah S Quay FC 10 23 7 +16 22
5 Penybont 10 20 8 +12 24
6 Colwyn Bay 10 20 14 +6 19
7 Cardiff MET 9 19 11 +8 14
8 Llandudno 10 18 14 +4 16
9 Airbus UK 10 17 15 +2 15
10 Cambrian & Clydach 10 17 20 -3 15
11 Holywell 10 11 35 -24 1
12 Briton Ferry 10 9 19 -10 8
13 Flint Town United 10 8 24 -16 2
14 Haverfordwest County AFC 9 7 14 -7 10
15 Ammanford AFC 10 7 28 -21 3
16 Trefelin 10 4 24 -20 3
Premier League Wales. Premier League Predictions