The model missed the final outcome (Karvan win 0–3).
The model had projected Baku Sportinq at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Baku Sportinq Karvan ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baku Sportinq | 36.1% | 30.4% | +5.7 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.8% | +2.9 pp | Aligned |
| Karvan | 34.2% | 42.8% | -8.6 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Karvan's win probability at 42.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 8.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Karvan win 0–3.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Karvan. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Baku Sportinq by 8.6 percentage points (44.7% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 03, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Baku Sportinq 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Karvan 34.2%
- xG · Baku Sportinq 1.32 — Karvan 1.28
-
Sep 03, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Baku Sportinq 2.94 · Draw 3.34 · Karvan 2.09
- Implied 1X2 · Baku Sportinq 30.4% · Draw 26.8% · Karvan 42.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 03, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Baku Sportinq 2.94 · Draw 3.34 · Karvan 2.09
- Implied 1X2 · Baku Sportinq 30.4% · Draw 26.8% · Karvan 42.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 03, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Karvan win · 0–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Birinci Dasta — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Şahdağ | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Cəbrayıl | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Səbail | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Karvan | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | MOIK | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Zaqatala | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Xankəndi FK | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 8 | Energetik | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 9 | Şimal | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 10 | Baku Sportinq | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Şahdağ | 3 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | Cəbrayıl | 3 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 9 |
| 3 | Karvan | 3 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 4 | Zaqatala | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Səbail | 3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 6 | MOIK | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 7 | Energetik | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 8 | Şimal | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 9 | Xankəndi FK | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 |
| 10 | Baku Sportinq | 3 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 0 |
