Predictions / Football / Estonia. Esiliiga B / Parnu JK Vaprus U21 vs Tulevik

Prediction Audit: Parnu JK Vaprus U21 vs Tulevik Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 Parnu JK Vaprus U21
Aug 20, 2026 - 12:00
2 1.30
2 1.30
xG Accuracy: 68%
Tulevik Tulevik

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Parnu JK Vaprus U21 at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Parnu JK Vaprus U21 Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Parnu JK Vaprus U21 higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Parnu JK Vaprus U21 -15.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 35.2% 50.8% -15.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 18.9% +10.7 pp Model Edge
Tulevik 35.2% 30.2% +4.9 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Parnu JK Vaprus U21's win probability at 50.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 15.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Parnu JK Vaprus U21 than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Parnu JK Vaprus U21; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Parnu JK Vaprus U21 by 15.7 percentage points (50.9% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 20, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Parnu JK Vaprus U21 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Tulevik 35.2%
    • xG · Parnu JK Vaprus U21 1.30 — Tulevik 1.30
  2. Aug 20, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Parnu JK Vaprus U21 1.75 · Draw 4.70 · Tulevik 2.94
    • Implied 1X2 · Parnu JK Vaprus U21 50.8% · Draw 18.9% · Tulevik 30.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 20, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Parnu JK Vaprus U21 1.75 · Draw 4.70 · Tulevik 2.94
    • Implied 1X2 · Parnu JK Vaprus U21 50.8% · Draw 18.9% · Tulevik 30.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 20, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (16 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 21/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 14, 2026 · 01:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3894852

Closing Odds 1.75
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Parnu JK Vaprus U21 2–2 Tulevik
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Esiliiga B
  • Fixture: Parnu JK Vaprus U21 vs Tulevik
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-20 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Parnu JK Vaprus U21 1.3 — Tulevik 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Esiliiga B Esiliiga B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Narva U21 30 20 3 7 63
2 Levadia U19 30 18 2 10 56
3 Phoenix 30 17 3 10 54
4 Tulevik 30 14 5 11 47
4 Johvi Phoenix 19 11 1 7 34
5 Tartu Kalev 30 15 2 13 47
6 Luunja 30 14 5 11 47
7 Parnu JK Vaprus U21 30 14 4 12 46
8 JK Tabasalu 30 10 3 17 33
9 Tallinna Kalev II 30 7 5 18 26
10 Legion 30 3 4 23 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Parnu JK Vaprus U21 30 95 62 +33 46
2 Tulevik 30 80 61 +19 47
3 Levadia U19 30 75 52 +23 56
4 Luunja 30 74 63 +11 47
5 Tartu Kalev 30 72 58 +14 47
6 Narva U21 30 71 36 +35 63
7 Phoenix 30 71 68 +3 54
8 Tallinna Kalev II 30 60 77 -17 26
9 Johvi Phoenix 19 49 47 +2 34
10 JK Tabasalu 30 44 81 -37 33
11 Legion 30 29 113 -84 13
Esiliiga B Estonia. Esiliiga B Predictions