Predictions / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Norra Götaland / Lidköping vs Ahlafors

Prediction Audit: Lidköping vs Ahlafors Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Lidköping Lidköping
Aug 21, 2026 - 16:30
2 1.35
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 68%
Ahlafors Ahlafors

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Lidköping at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Lidköping Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Lidköping; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 21, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Lidköping 1.35 — Ahlafors 1.25
  2. Aug 21, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 01:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4027928

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Lidköping 2–2 Ahlafors
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division 2 - Norra Götaland
  • Fixture: Lidköping vs Ahlafors
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-21 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Lidköping 1.35 — Ahlafors 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Norra Götaland Division 2 - Norra Götaland — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Husqvarna 24 20 3 1 63
2 Skara 25 17 5 3 56
3 IFK Skövde 25 14 5 6 47
4 Ahlafors 24 12 7 5 43
5 Grebbestad 24 12 3 9 39
6 Herrestads 24 10 7 7 37
7 Stenungsund 24 9 6 9 33
8 Vänersborgs FK 25 8 5 12 29
9 Lidköping 24 7 6 11 27
10 Motala 24 6 8 10 26
11 Kumla 25 6 8 11 26
12 Tord 24 4 9 11 21
13 IF Karlstad II 24 2 7 15 13
14 Vänersborgs IF 24 2 3 19 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Husqvarna 24 58 18 +40 63
2 Ahlafors 24 55 28 +27 43
3 Skara 25 52 26 +26 56
4 Herrestads 24 44 43 +1 37
5 Stenungsund 24 43 33 +10 33
6 Grebbestad 24 43 36 +7 39
7 IFK Skövde 25 42 26 +16 47
8 Motala 24 35 38 -3 26
9 Vänersborgs FK 25 33 43 -10 29
10 Lidköping 24 29 42 -13 27
11 Tord 24 29 43 -14 21
12 Kumla 25 26 45 -19 26
13 IF Karlstad II 24 24 47 -23 13
14 Vänersborgs IF 24 24 69 -45 9
Division 2 - Norra Götaland Sweden. Division 2 - Norra Götaland Predictions