Predictions / Football / Tunisia. Ligue 1 / Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs ES Tunis

Prediction Audit: Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs ES Tunis Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
Aug 30, 2026 - 15:30
3 1.06
1 1.54
xG Accuracy: 51%
ES Tunis ES Tunis

The model missed the final outcome (Jeunesse Sportive Omrane win 3–1).

The model had projected ES Tunis at 46.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 ES Tunis Jeunesse Sportive Omrane ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices ES Tunis higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: ES Tunis -19.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 24.5% 9.2% +15.4 pp Model Edge
Draw 28.6% 24.4% +4.3 pp Aligned
ES Tunis 46.8% 66.4% -19.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates ES Tunis's win probability at 66.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 46.8%, a difference of 19.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Jeunesse Sportive Omrane win 3–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about ES Tunis than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned ES Tunis; match finished Jeunesse Sportive Omrane

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on ES Tunis by 19.6 percentage points (66.4% vs model 46.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 30, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 24.6% · Draw 28.7% · ES Tunis 46.8%
    • xG · Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 1.06 — ES Tunis 1.54
  2. Aug 30, 2026 · 15:05 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 10.00 · Draw 3.76 · ES Tunis 1.38
    • Implied 1X2 · Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 9.2% · Draw 24.4% · ES Tunis 66.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 30, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 10.00 · Draw 3.76 · ES Tunis 1.38
    • Implied 1X2 · Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 9.2% · Draw 24.4% · ES Tunis 66.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 30, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Jeunesse Sportive Omrane win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (20 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 1/100
Betting Confidence 42/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 04:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5153576

Closing Odds 1.38
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Jeunesse Sportive Omrane win · Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 3–1 ES Tunis
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ligue 1
  • Fixture: Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs ES Tunis
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-30 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 24.6% · Draw 28.7% · Away 46.8%
  • xG (showing): Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 1.06 — ES Tunis 1.54 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 52.9% · No 47.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 52.9% · No 47.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.1%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Ligue 1 Ligue 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Club Africain 3 3 0 0 9
2 ES Tunis 4 3 0 1 9
3 US Ben Guerdane 4 2 2 0 8
4 CS Sfaxien 4 2 2 0 8
5 US Monastirienne 4 2 2 0 8
6 Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 4 2 2 0 8
7 Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 4 2 1 1 7
8 CA Bizertin 4 2 1 1 7
9 Stade Tunisien 3 1 1 1 4
10 ES Sahel 4 1 1 2 4
11 AS Marsa 4 1 1 2 4
12 ES Zarzis 4 1 0 3 3
13 ES Metlaoui 4 1 0 3 3
14 Olympique Béja 4 0 2 2 2
15 ES Hammam-Sousse 4 0 1 3 1
16 CS Hammam-Lif 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 US Ben Guerdane 4 7 5 +2 8
2 US Monastirienne 4 7 5 +2 8
3 ES Tunis 4 7 6 +1 9
4 CS Sfaxien 4 6 3 +3 8
5 Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 4 5 4 +1 7
6 Stade Tunisien 3 5 4 +1 4
7 ES Sahel 4 5 6 -1 4
8 Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 4 4 1 +3 8
9 Club Africain 3 3 0 +3 9
10 CA Bizertin 4 3 3 0 7
11 ES Zarzis 4 3 5 -2 3
12 Olympique Béja 4 3 5 -2 2
13 AS Marsa 4 2 3 -1 4
14 ES Metlaoui 4 2 4 -2 3
15 ES Hammam-Sousse 4 1 5 -4 1
16 CS Hammam-Lif 4 0 4 -4 0