Predictions / Football / Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 1 / Mérida AD vs Deportivo La Coruña II

Prediction Audit: Mérida AD vs Deportivo La Coruña II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Mérida AD Mérida AD
Aug 29, 2026 - 17:15
1 1.27
0 1.33
xG Accuracy: 64%
Deportivo La Coruña II Deportivo La Coruña II

The model missed the final outcome (Mérida AD win 1–0).

The model had projected Deportivo La Coruña II at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Deportivo La Coruña II Mérida AD ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Mérida AD higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Mérida AD -11.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Mérida AD 33.8% 45.4% -11.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 28.0% +1.6 pp Aligned
Deportivo La Coruña II 36.6% 26.6% +10.0 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Mérida AD's win probability at 45.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 11.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Mérida AD win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Mérida AD than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Deportivo La Coruña II; match finished Mérida AD

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Deportivo La Coruña II by 11.6 percentage points (48.2% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 29, 2026 · 17:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Mérida AD 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Deportivo La Coruña II 36.6%
    • xG · Mérida AD 1.27 — Deportivo La Coruña II 1.33
  2. Aug 29, 2026 · 16:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Mérida AD 2.02 · Draw 3.27 · Deportivo La Coruña II 3.44
    • Implied 1X2 · Mérida AD 45.4% · Draw 28.0% · Deportivo La Coruña II 26.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 29, 2026 · 17:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Mérida AD 2.02 · Draw 3.27 · Deportivo La Coruña II 3.44
    • Implied 1X2 · Mérida AD 45.4% · Draw 28.0% · Deportivo La Coruña II 26.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 29, 2026 · 17:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Mérida AD win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 14/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 04:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5158398

Closing Odds 2.02
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Mérida AD win · Mérida AD 1–0 Deportivo La Coruña II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primera División RFEF - Group 1
  • Fixture: Mérida AD vs Deportivo La Coruña II
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-29 17:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Mérida AD 1.27 — Deportivo La Coruña II 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.4%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Primera División RFEF - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Lugo 5 4 1 0 13
2 Athletic Club II 5 3 2 0 11
3 UD Logroñés 4 3 1 0 10
4 Cacereño 4 3 1 0 10
5 Deportivo La Coruña II 5 2 2 1 8
6 Cultural Leonesa 5 2 2 1 8
7 Real Unión 5 2 1 2 7
8 Mirandes 4 2 1 1 7
9 Pontevedra 4 2 1 1 7
10 Ponferradina 4 2 1 1 7
11 Zamora 5 2 1 2 7
12 Racing Ferrol 5 2 1 2 7
13 CD Coria 5 1 2 2 5
14 Real Avilés 4 1 1 2 4
15 Barakaldo 4 1 1 2 4
16 Mérida AD 4 1 0 3 3
17 Extremadura 1924 5 1 0 4 3
18 Unionistas de Salamanca 4 1 0 3 3
19 Arenas Getxo 5 0 1 4 1
20 UD Ourense 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Unión 5 12 10 +2 7
2 Athletic Club II 5 11 5 +6 11
3 UD Logroñés 4 8 3 +5 10
4 Mirandes 4 8 6 +2 7
5 CD Coria 5 8 9 -1 5
6 Lugo 5 7 2 +5 13
7 Deportivo La Coruña II 5 7 5 +2 8
8 Pontevedra 4 7 5 +2 7
9 Unionistas de Salamanca 4 7 11 -4 3
10 Cacereño 4 6 1 +5 10
11 Zamora 5 6 6 0 7
12 Racing Ferrol 5 5 5 0 7
13 Real Avilés 4 5 5 0 4
14 Cultural Leonesa 5 4 3 +1 8
15 Mérida AD 4 4 6 -2 3
16 Ponferradina 4 3 2 +1 7
17 Arenas Getxo 5 3 13 -10 1
18 Barakaldo 4 2 5 -3 4
19 Extremadura 1924 5 2 5 -3 3
20 UD Ourense 4 1 9 -8 0
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Spain. Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions