Prediction Audit: Guadalajara W vs Pumas UNAM W Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Guadalajara W

Aug 30, 2026 - 23:06

0 1.48

2 1.12

xG Accuracy: 52%

Pumas UNAM W

The model missed the final outcome (Pumas UNAM W win 0–2).

The model had projected Guadalajara W at 43.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Guadalajara W Pumas UNAM W ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Guadalajara W	43.8%	52.4%	-8.6 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.1%	24.7%	+4.3 pp	Aligned
Pumas UNAM W	27.1%	22.9%	+4.2 pp	Aligned

The closing market estimates Guadalajara W's win probability at 52.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 43.8%, a difference of 8.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Pumas UNAM W win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Guadalajara W. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
1X2: model leaned Guadalajara W; match finished Pumas UNAM W

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Guadalajara W by 8.6 percentage points (52.4% vs model 43.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 30, 2026 · 23:05 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Guadalajara W 43.9% · Draw 29.1% · Pumas UNAM W 27.1%
- xG · Guadalajara W 1.48 — Pumas UNAM W 1.12
Aug 30, 2026 · 22:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Guadalajara W 1.77 · Draw 3.75 · Pumas UNAM W 4.06
- Implied 1X2 · Guadalajara W 52.4% · Draw 24.7% · Pumas UNAM W 22.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 30, 2026 · 23:05 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Guadalajara W 1.77 · Draw 3.75 · Pumas UNAM W 4.06
- Implied 1X2 · Guadalajara W 52.4% · Draw 24.7% · Pumas UNAM W 22.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 30, 2026 · 23:06 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Pumas UNAM W win · 0–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 57/100

Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 24, 2026 · 02:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5306180

Closing Odds 1.77

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Pumas UNAM W win · Guadalajara W 0–2 Pumas UNAM W

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Liga MX Femenil
Fixture: Guadalajara W vs Pumas UNAM W
Kickoff: 2026-08-30 23:06:00
1X2 (model): Home 43.9% · Draw 29.1% · Away 27.1%
xG (showing): Guadalajara W 1.48 — Pumas UNAM W 1.12 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.6% · No 46.4%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga MX Femenil — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Monterrey W	9	8	0	1	24
2	América W	8	7	1	0	22
3	Tigres UANL W	9	7	1	1	22
4	Juárez W	9	7	0	2	21
5	Guadalajara W	9	6	0	3	18
6	Atlético San Luis W	9	5	1	3	16
7	Toluca W	8	5	1	2	16
8	Pumas UNAM W	9	4	1	4	13
9	León W	8	4	0	4	12
10	Atlas W	9	3	3	3	12
11	Santos Laguna W	9	4	0	5	12
12	Cruz Azul W	9	4	0	5	12
13	Pachuca W	9	3	1	5	10
14	Atlante W	9	2	1	6	7
15	Querétaro W	9	2	0	7	6
16	Tijuana W	9	2	0	7	6
17	Puebla W	9	1	0	8	3
18	Necaxa W	8	0	0	8	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	América W	8	37	7	+30	22
2	Monterrey W	9	35	10	+25	24
3	Tigres UANL W	9	29	9	+20	22
4	Atlético San Luis W	9	22	16	+6	16
5	Guadalajara W	9	20	11	+9	18
6	Toluca W	8	19	15	+4	16
7	Pumas UNAM W	9	17	14	+3	13
8	León W	8	15	12	+3	12
9	Juárez W	9	14	6	+8	21
10	Pachuca W	9	13	13	0	10
11	Puebla W	9	13	38	-25	3
12	Santos Laguna W	9	12	20	-8	12
13	Tijuana W	9	12	24	-12	6
14	Cruz Azul W	9	11	21	-10	12
15	Atlas W	9	10	17	-7	12
16	Querétaro W	9	10	21	-11	6
17	Atlante W	9	6	12	-6	7
18	Necaxa W	8	3	32	-29	0