Prediction Audit: Dundee vs Hibernian Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dundee

Aug 30, 2026 - 14:00

1 2.33

2 1.44

xG Accuracy: 60%

Hibernian

The model missed the final outcome (Hibernian win 1–2).

The model had projected Dundee at 48.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Dundee Hibernian ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 3-1, 2-2, 2-0 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Dundee	48.9%	33.2%	+15.7 pp	Model Edge
Draw	24.0%	27.9%	-3.9 pp	Aligned
Hibernian	27.1%	38.9%	-11.8 pp	Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Dundee's win probability at 48.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 33.2%, a difference of 15.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Hibernian win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Dundee.

The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.77) — 3 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

1X2: model leaned Dundee; match finished Hibernian
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Dundee by 15.7 percentage points (33.2% vs model 48.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 30, 2026 · 19:26 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Dundee 49.0% · Draw 24.0% · Hibernian 27.1%
- xG · Dundee 2.33 — Hibernian 1.44
Aug 30, 2026 · 13:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Dundee 2.99 · Draw 3.49 · Hibernian 2.43
- Implied 1X2 · Dundee 32.4% · Draw 27.8% · Hibernian 39.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 30, 2026 · 13:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Dundee 2.92 · Draw 3.47 · Hibernian 2.49
- Implied 1X2 · Dundee 33.2% · Draw 27.9% · Hibernian 38.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 30, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Hibernian win · 1–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (16 pp)
High xG deviation from league baseline (73%+)

Evidence ★★★★★

Statistical edge detected
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 7/100

Monitoring Confidence 17/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 24, 2026 · 01:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5295391

Closing Odds 2.92

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Hibernian win · Dundee 1–2 Hibernian

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Premiership
Fixture: Dundee vs Hibernian
Kickoff: 2026-08-30 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
xG (showing): Dundee 2.33 — Hibernian 1.44 (total xG ≈ 3.77)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Premiership — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Celtic	7	6	0	1	18
2	Rangers	7	5	1	1	16
3	Heart Of Midlothian	7	4	1	2	13
4	Dundee	7	3	1	3	10
5	ST Mirren	7	3	1	3	10
6	ST Johnstone	7	2	2	3	8
7	Aberdeen	7	2	2	3	8
8	Dundee Utd	7	2	2	3	8
9	Motherwell	7	2	2	3	8
10	Hibernian	7	2	1	4	7
11	Falkirk	7	1	3	3	6
12	Kilmarnock	7	1	2	4	5

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Celtic	7	14	4	+10	18
2	Heart Of Midlothian	7	14	8	+6	13
3	Dundee	7	9	7	+2	10
4	ST Johnstone	7	9	10	-1	8
5	Dundee Utd	7	9	11	-2	8
6	Motherwell	7	9	11	-2	8
7	Rangers	7	8	4	+4	16
8	ST Mirren	7	8	9	-1	10
9	Hibernian	7	8	11	-3	7
10	Aberdeen	7	7	8	-1	8
11	Falkirk	7	6	9	-3	6
12	Kilmarnock	7	6	15	-9	5

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Celtic	7	11.1	1.9	+9.2	18
2	Heart Of Midlothian	7	7.1	4.5	+2.6	13
3	Motherwell	7	7.2	4.8	+2.4	8
4	ST Mirren	7	6.2	4.7	+1.5	10
5	Rangers	7	5.3	3.8	+1.5	16
6	ST Johnstone	7	6.7	5.6	+1.1	8
7	Hibernian	7	7.8	7.3	+0.5	7
8	Dundee Utd	7	6.9	8.3	-1.4	8
9	Aberdeen	7	3.4	5.4	-2.0	8
10	Dundee	7	5.6	8.7	-3.1	10
11	Falkirk	7	1.7	5.3	-3.6	6
12	Kilmarnock	7	3.1	11.9	-8.8	5