AI correctly predicted the Lebanon U20 win.
The match finished 2–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Lebanon U20 Lebanon U20 ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrgyz Republic U20 | 31.0% | 48.8% | -17.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 29.4% | +0.1 pp | Aligned |
| Lebanon U20 | 39.5% | 21.7% | +17.7 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Kyrgyz Republic U20's win probability at 48.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 17.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Lebanon U20 win 2–3).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Kyrgyz Republic U20 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Lebanon U20 higher (57.3% vs model 39.5%, 17.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Lebanon U20 win 2–3).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 03, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Kyrgyz Republic U20 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Lebanon U20 39.5%
- xG · Kyrgyz Republic U20 1.21 — Lebanon U20 1.39
-
Sep 03, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Kyrgyz Republic U20 1.82 · Draw 3.02 · Lebanon U20 4.09
- Implied 1X2 · Kyrgyz Republic U20 48.8% · Draw 29.4% · Lebanon U20 21.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 03, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Kyrgyz Republic U20 1.82 · Draw 3.02 · Lebanon U20 4.09
- Implied 1X2 · Kyrgyz Republic U20 48.8% · Draw 29.4% · Lebanon U20 21.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 03, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Lebanon U20 win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (18 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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