Predictions / Football / Sweden. Damallsvenskan / Malmö FF W vs Hammarby

Prediction Audit: Malmö FF W vs Hammarby Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Malmö FF W Malmö FF W
Aug 21, 2026 - 16:00
1 2.35
1 2.76
xG Accuracy: 42%
Hammarby Hammarby

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Hammarby at 47.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Hammarby Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-2, 2-3, 1-2, 3-2, 1-3 1-1 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Hammarby; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 21, 2026 · 19:17 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Malmö FF W 2.35 — Hammarby 2.76
  2. Aug 21, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 45/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (104%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 47/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 01:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4025718

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Malmö FF W 1–1 Hammarby
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Damallsvenskan
  • Fixture: Malmö FF W vs Hammarby
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-21 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Malmö FF W 2.35 — Hammarby 2.76 (total xG ≈ 5.11)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Damallsvenskan Damallsvenskan — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Häcken 21 19 1 1 58
2 Hammarby 21 17 2 2 53
3 Malmö FF W 21 11 6 4 39
4 AIK 21 10 4 7 34
5 Kristianstad 21 9 5 7 32
6 Vittsjö 21 9 5 7 32
7 Brommapojkarna W 21 9 2 10 29
8 Eskilstuna United 21 8 3 10 27
9 Piteå W 21 6 6 9 24
10 Djurgården 21 7 3 11 24
11 Rosengård W 21 5 5 11 20
12 Växjö 21 5 3 13 18
13 Norrköping W 21 3 8 10 17
14 Uppsala W 21 1 3 17 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Häcken 21 70 13 +57 58
2 Hammarby 21 51 10 +41 53
3 Malmö FF W 21 40 14 +26 39
4 Kristianstad 21 35 32 +3 32
5 AIK 21 30 29 +1 34
6 Vittsjö 21 29 26 +3 32
7 Brommapojkarna W 21 28 36 -8 29
8 Djurgården 21 27 34 -7 24
9 Piteå W 21 24 30 -6 24
10 Växjö 21 23 42 -19 18
11 Rosengård W 21 21 26 -5 20
12 Eskilstuna United 21 18 27 -9 27
13 Norrköping W 21 18 36 -18 17
14 Uppsala W 21 14 73 -59 6
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Hammarby 21 2.9 2.2 +0.7 53
2 AIK 21 2.2 2.9 -0.7 34
3 Häcken 21 — — — 58
4 Malmö FF W 21 — — — 39
5 Kristianstad 21 — — — 32
6 Vittsjö 21 — — — 32
7 Brommapojkarna W 21 — — — 29
8 Eskilstuna United 21 — — — 27
9 Piteå W 21 — — — 24
10 Djurgården 21 — — — 24
11 Rosengård W 21 — — — 20
12 Växjö 21 — — — 18
13 Norrköping W 21 — — — 17
14 Uppsala W 21 — — — 6