Prediction Audit: Jablonec II vs Velké Hamry Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Jablonec II

Aug 23, 2026 - 08:15

6 1.32

0 1.28

xG Accuracy: 19%

Velké Hamry

AI correctly predicted the Jablonec II win.

The match finished 6–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Jablonec II Jablonec II ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 6-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Jablonec II	36.1%	50.2%	-14.1 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	24.5%	+5.1 pp	Model Higher
Velké Hamry	34.2%	25.3%	+9.0 pp	Model Higher

The closing market estimates Jablonec II's win probability at 50.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 14.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Jablonec II win 6–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Jablonec II than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Jablonec II higher (50.2% vs model 36.1%, 14.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Jablonec II win 6–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 23, 2026 · 08:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Jablonec II 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Velké Hamry 34.2%
- xG · Jablonec II 1.32 — Velké Hamry 1.28
Aug 23, 2026 · 07:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Jablonec II 1.80 · Draw 3.69 · Velké Hamry 3.58
- Implied 1X2 · Jablonec II 50.2% · Draw 24.5% · Velké Hamry 25.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 23, 2026 · 08:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Jablonec II 1.80 · Draw 3.69 · Velké Hamry 3.58
- Implied 1X2 · Jablonec II 50.2% · Draw 24.5% · Velké Hamry 25.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 23, 2026 · 08:15 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Jablonec II win · 6–0
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (14 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 29/100

Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 00:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4357837

Closing Odds 1.8

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Jablonec II win · Jablonec II 6–0 Velké Hamry

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: 3. liga - CFL B
Fixture: Jablonec II vs Velké Hamry
Kickoff: 2026-08-23 08:15:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Jablonec II 1.32 — Velké Hamry 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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