AI correctly predicted the Caracas FC win.
The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Caracas FC Caracas FC ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caracas FC | 36.6% | 71.1% | -34.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 21.2% | +8.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Fundación Lara Deportiva | 33.8% | 7.8% | +26.0 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Caracas FC's win probability at 71.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 34.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Caracas FC win 3–1).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Caracas FC higher (71.1% vs model 36.6%, 34.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Caracas FC win 3–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 26, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Caracas FC 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Fundación Lara Deportiva 33.8%
- xG · Caracas FC 1.33 — Fundación Lara Deportiva 1.27
-
Aug 26, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Caracas FC 1.26 · Draw 4.23 · Fundación Lara Deportiva 11.56
- Implied 1X2 · Caracas FC 71.1% · Draw 21.2% · Fundación Lara Deportiva 7.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 26, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Caracas FC 1.26 · Draw 4.23 · Fundación Lara Deportiva 11.56
- Implied 1X2 · Caracas FC 71.1% · Draw 21.2% · Fundación Lara Deportiva 7.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 26, 2026 · 22:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Caracas FC win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (34 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Copa Venezuela — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Academia Anzoátegui | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | Atletico Avila FC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Petare FC | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 4 | Marítimo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Academia Anzoátegui | 3 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 | Petare FC | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 1 |
| 3 | Atletico Avila FC | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Marítimo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
