Prediction Audit: Avellino vs Arezzo Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Avellino

Aug 22, 2026 - 19:00

1 1.07

2 1.09

xG Accuracy: 76%

Arezzo

The model missed the final outcome (Arezzo win 1–2).

The model had projected Avellino at 35.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Avellino Arezzo ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Avellino	35.7%	42.5%	-6.8 pp	Market Higher
Draw	32.3%	31.1%	+1.2 pp	Aligned
Arezzo	32.0%	26.3%	+5.7 pp	Model Higher

The closing market estimates Avellino's win probability at 42.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.7%, a difference of 6.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Arezzo win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Avellino. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Avellino by 6.8 percentage points (42.6% vs model 35.7%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 22, 2026 · 20:09 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Avellino 35.7% · Draw 32.2% · Arezzo 32.0%
- xG · Avellino 1.07 — Arezzo 1.09
Aug 22, 2026 · 18:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Avellino 2.26 · Draw 3.09 · Arezzo 3.65
- Implied 1X2 · Avellino 42.5% · Draw 31.1% · Arezzo 26.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 22, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Avellino 2.26 · Draw 3.09 · Arezzo 3.65
- Implied 1X2 · Avellino 42.5% · Draw 31.1% · Arezzo 26.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 22, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Arezzo win · 1–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 65/100

Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 03:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4242171

Closing Odds 2.26

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Arezzo win · Avellino 1–2 Arezzo

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Serie B
Fixture: Avellino vs Arezzo
Kickoff: 2026-08-22 19:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.7% · Draw 32.2% · Away 32.0%
xG (showing): Avellino 1.07 — Arezzo 1.09 (total xG ≈ 2.16)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.9%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 63.3% · Over 2.5 36.6%); BTTS No (Yes 45.4% · No 54.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 45.4% · No 54.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie B — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Palermo	5	4	1	0	13
2	Sudtirol	5	3	2	0	11
3	Mantova	5	3	2	0	11
4	Modena	5	3	1	1	10
5	Ascoli	5	3	1	1	10
6	Padova	5	2	1	2	7
7	Benevento	5	2	1	2	7
8	Verona	5	2	1	2	7
9	Avellino	5	2	1	2	7
10	Cesena	5	1	4	0	7
11	Pisa	5	2	1	2	7
12	Arezzo	5	2	0	3	6
13	Empoli	5	2	0	3	6
14	Virtus Entella	5	1	2	2	5
15	Cremonese	5	1	2	2	5
16	Vicenza Virtus	5	1	2	2	5
17	Sampdoria	5	1	1	3	4
18	Juve Stabia	5	1	2	2	3
19	Catanzaro	5	1	0	4	3
20	Carrarese	5	0	1	4	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Palermo	5	10	5	+5	13
2	Mantova	5	10	5	+5	11
3	Verona	5	10	7	+3	7
4	Sudtirol	5	9	3	+6	11
5	Modena	5	8	4	+4	10
6	Pisa	5	8	8	0	7
7	Ascoli	5	7	4	+3	10
8	Avellino	5	7	6	+1	7
9	Cesena	5	7	6	+1	7
10	Virtus Entella	5	7	6	+1	5
11	Vicenza Virtus	5	7	10	-3	5
12	Benevento	5	6	5	+1	7
13	Arezzo	5	6	13	-7	6
14	Padova	5	5	6	-1	7
15	Cremonese	5	5	7	-2	5
16	Sampdoria	5	5	9	-4	4
17	Catanzaro	5	5	9	-4	3
18	Empoli	5	4	6	-2	6
19	Juve Stabia	5	4	7	-3	3
20	Carrarese	5	2	6	-4	1

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Verona	5	4.8	2.2	+2.6	7
2	Modena	5	3.2	1.3	+1.9	10
3	Benevento	5	2.8	1.1	+1.7	7
4	Pisa	5	3.7	2.2	+1.5	7
5	Palermo	5	3.2	2.2	+1.0	13
6	Cesena	5	3.0	2.1	+0.9	7
7	Mantova	5	2.9	2.6	+0.3	11
8	Sampdoria	5	2.3	2.3	0.0	4
9	Carrarese	5	2.7	2.8	-0.1	1
10	Vicenza Virtus	5	2.9	3.1	-0.2	5
11	Arezzo	5	2.5	2.7	-0.2	6
12	Empoli	5	1.4	1.6	-0.2	6
13	Virtus Entella	5	1.2	1.4	-0.2	5
14	Juve Stabia	5	2.1	2.4	-0.3	3
15	Cremonese	5	0.7	1.6	-0.9	5
16	Catanzaro	5	2.8	3.8	-1.0	3
17	Padova	5	2.0	3.3	-1.3	7
18	Sudtirol	5	1.5	2.8	-1.3	11
19	Avellino	5	2.5	4.4	-1.9	7
20	Ascoli	5	2.9	4.9	-2.0	10