Predictions / Football / Sweden. Elitettan / Jitex W vs Alingsås W

Prediction Audit: Jitex W vs Alingsås W Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Jitex W Jitex W
Aug 22, 2026 - 11:00
1 1.23
2 1.37
xG Accuracy: 79%
Alingsås W Alingsås W

AI correctly predicted the Alingsås W win.

The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Alingsås W Alingsås W ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Jitex W higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Jitex W -14.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Jitex W 31.9% 46.1% -14.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 23.6% +6.0 pp Model Higher
Alingsås W 38.5% 30.4% +8.1 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Jitex W's win probability at 46.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 14.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Alingsås W win 1–2).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Jitex W than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Alingsås W higher (52.6% vs model 38.5%, 14.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Alingsås W win 1–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 22, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Jitex W 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Alingsås W 38.5%
    • xG · Jitex W 1.23 — Alingsås W 1.37
  2. Aug 22, 2026 · 10:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Jitex W 1.93 · Draw 3.77 · Alingsås W 2.93
    • Implied 1X2 · Jitex W 46.1% · Draw 23.6% · Alingsås W 30.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 22, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Jitex W 1.93 · Draw 3.77 · Alingsås W 2.93
    • Implied 1X2 · Jitex W 46.1% · Draw 23.6% · Alingsås W 30.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 22, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Alingsås W win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 10/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 01:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4214491

Closing Odds 1.93
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Alingsås W win · Jitex W 1–2 Alingsås W
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Elitettan
  • Fixture: Jitex W vs Alingsås W
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.5%
  • xG (showing): Jitex W 1.23 — Alingsås W 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Elitettan Elitettan — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Elfsborg 20 13 6 1 45
2 KIF Örebro 20 14 2 4 44
3 Göteborg 20 12 6 2 42
4 Linköping 20 13 3 4 42
5 Umeå 20 10 4 6 34
6 Trelleborg W 20 9 5 6 32
7 Husqvarna W 20 8 4 8 28
8 Jitex W 20 6 6 8 24
9 Örebro Söder W 20 6 5 9 23
10 Alingsås W 20 4 7 9 19
11 Enskede W 20 5 4 11 19
12 Gamla Upsala W 20 4 5 11 17
13 Sandviken W 20 2 5 13 11
14 Häcken II 20 2 2 16 8
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Göteborg 20 50 23 +27 42
2 KIF Örebro 20 43 25 +18 44
3 Linköping 20 38 26 +12 42
4 Elfsborg 20 37 10 +27 45
5 Umeå 20 35 24 +11 34
6 Trelleborg W 20 28 27 +1 32
7 Husqvarna W 20 28 30 -2 28
8 Enskede W 20 27 38 -11 19
9 Jitex W 20 26 29 -3 24
10 Örebro Söder W 20 23 30 -7 23
11 Gamla Upsala W 20 21 33 -12 17
12 Häcken II 20 20 42 -22 8
13 Sandviken W 20 20 49 -29 11
14 Alingsås W 20 17 27 -10 19
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