The model missed the final outcome (JBK win 0–1).
The model had projected SJK-juniorit at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 SJK-juniorit JBK ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJK-juniorit | 35.6% | 32.3% | +3.3 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.5% | +6.1 pp | Model Higher |
| JBK | 34.7% | 44.2% | -9.5 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates JBK's win probability at 44.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 9.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was JBK win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on JBK. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned SJK-juniorit; match finished JBK
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on SJK-juniorit by 9.5 percentage points (45.1% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 12:03 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · SJK-juniorit 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · JBK 34.7%
- xG · SJK-juniorit 1.31 — JBK 1.29
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 11:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · SJK-juniorit 2.80 · Draw 3.85 · JBK 2.05
- Implied 1X2 · SJK-juniorit 32.3% · Draw 23.5% · JBK 44.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 12:03 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · SJK-juniorit 2.80 · Draw 3.85 · JBK 2.05
- Implied 1X2 · SJK-juniorit 32.3% · Draw 23.5% · JBK 44.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result JBK win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Kakkonen - Lohko C — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huima / Urho | 18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 36 |
| 2 | GBK | 18 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 32 |
| 3 | JBK | 18 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 31 |
| 4 | VPS II | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 25 |
| 5 | Jaro 2 | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 25 |
| 6 | Kraft | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 23 |
| 7 | TP-47 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 8 | Vaajakoski | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 21 |
| 9 | JS Hercules | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 21 |
| 10 | SJK-juniorit | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 19 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huima / Urho | 18 | 50 | 26 | +24 | 36 |
| 2 | Kraft | 18 | 50 | 45 | +5 | 23 |
| 3 | VPS II | 18 | 47 | 36 | +11 | 25 |
| 4 | GBK | 18 | 43 | 33 | +10 | 32 |
| 5 | JBK | 18 | 37 | 24 | +13 | 31 |
| 6 | Vaajakoski | 18 | 34 | 44 | -10 | 21 |
| 7 | Jaro 2 | 18 | 33 | 54 | -21 | 25 |
| 8 | JS Hercules | 18 | 31 | 42 | -11 | 21 |
| 9 | TP-47 | 18 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 23 |
| 10 | SJK-juniorit | 18 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 19 |
