Predictions / Football / Venezuela. Copa Venezuela / Aragua FC vs Yaracuyanos FC

Prediction Audit: Aragua FC vs Yaracuyanos FC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Aragua FC Aragua FC
Aug 26, 2026 - 20:00
1 1.27
2 1.33
xG Accuracy: 77%
Yaracuyanos FC Yaracuyanos FC

AI correctly predicted the Yaracuyanos FC win.

The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Yaracuyanos FC Yaracuyanos FC ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Aragua FC higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Aragua FC -6.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Aragua FC 33.8% 39.7% -6.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 29.2% +0.4 pp Aligned
Yaracuyanos FC 36.6% 31.1% +5.5 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Aragua FC's win probability at 39.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 6.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Yaracuyanos FC win 1–2).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Aragua FC. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Yaracuyanos FC higher (42.6% vs model 36.6%, 6.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Yaracuyanos FC win 1–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 26, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Aragua FC 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Yaracuyanos FC 36.6%
    • xG · Aragua FC 1.27 — Yaracuyanos FC 1.33
  2. Aug 26, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Aragua FC 2.19 · Draw 2.98 · Yaracuyanos FC 2.80
    • Implied 1X2 · Aragua FC 39.7% · Draw 29.2% · Yaracuyanos FC 31.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 26, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Aragua FC 2.19 · Draw 2.98 · Yaracuyanos FC 2.80
    • Implied 1X2 · Aragua FC 39.7% · Draw 29.2% · Yaracuyanos FC 31.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 26, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Yaracuyanos FC win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 24/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 20, 2026 · 00:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4662413

Closing Odds 2.19
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Yaracuyanos FC win · Aragua FC 1–2 Yaracuyanos FC
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Copa Venezuela
  • Fixture: Aragua FC vs Yaracuyanos FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-26 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Aragua FC 1.27 — Yaracuyanos FC 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Copa Venezuela Copa Venezuela — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Academia Anzoátegui 3 2 1 0 7
2 Atletico Avila FC 2 1 0 1 3
3 Petare FC 3 0 1 2 1
4 Marítimo 0 0 0 0 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Academia Anzoátegui 3 7 4 +3 7
2 Petare FC 3 3 5 -2 1
3 Atletico Avila FC 2 2 3 -1 3
4 Marítimo 0 0 0 0 0
Copa Venezuela Venezuela. Copa Venezuela Predictions