The model missed the final outcome (Deportivo Lara win 2–1).
The model had projected Fundación Lara Deportiva at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Fundación Lara Deportiva Deportivo Lara ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Lara | 34.7% | 51.6% | -16.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.9% | -1.3 pp | Aligned |
| Fundación Lara Deportiva | 35.6% | 17.4% | +18.2 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Fundación Lara Deportiva's win probability at 35.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 17.4%, a difference of 18.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Deportivo Lara win 2–1.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Fundación Lara Deportiva.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Fundación Lara Deportiva; match finished Deportivo Lara
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Fundación Lara Deportiva by 18.2 percentage points (17.4% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 02, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Deportivo Lara 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Fundación Lara Deportiva 35.6%
- xG · Deportivo Lara 1.29 — Fundación Lara Deportiva 1.31
-
Sep 02, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Deportivo Lara 1.59 · Draw 3.57 · Fundación Lara Deportiva 4.56
- Implied 1X2 · Deportivo Lara 55.7% · Draw 24.8% · Fundación Lara Deportiva 19.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 02, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Deportivo Lara 1.72 · Draw 2.87 · Fundación Lara Deportiva 5.10
- Implied 1X2 · Deportivo Lara 51.6% · Draw 30.9% · Fundación Lara Deportiva 17.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 02, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Deportivo Lara win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (18 pp)
- Statistical edge detected
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Segunda División — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Lara | 27 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 60 |
| 2 | Fundación Lara Deportiva | 27 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 50 |
| 3 | Urena SC | 28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 45 |
| 4 | Yaracuyanos FC | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40 |
| 5 | Zamora FC B | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40 |
| 6 | Atletico el Vigia FC | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 34 |
| 7 | Puerto Cabello II | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 31 |
| 8 | Club Atletico Barinas | 28 | 9 | 4 | 15 | 31 |
| 9 | Real Frontera | 28 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 12 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Atletico Barinas | 28 | 49 | 59 | -10 | 31 |
| 2 | Fundación Lara Deportiva | 27 | 48 | 27 | +21 | 50 |
| 3 | Deportivo Lara | 27 | 46 | 20 | +26 | 60 |
| 4 | Zamora FC B | 27 | 42 | 36 | +6 | 40 |
| 5 | Urena SC | 28 | 41 | 34 | +7 | 45 |
| 6 | Puerto Cabello II | 28 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 31 |
| 7 | Yaracuyanos FC | 27 | 34 | 27 | +7 | 40 |
| 8 | Atletico el Vigia FC | 28 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 34 |
| 9 | Real Frontera | 28 | 22 | 62 | -40 | 12 |
