Predictions / Football / Estonia. Meistriliiga / Tammeka vs Kuressaare

Prediction Audit: Tammeka vs Kuressaare Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tammeka Tammeka
Aug 22, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.31
0 1.29
xG Accuracy: 64%
Kuressaare Kuressaare

AI correctly predicted the Tammeka win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Tammeka Tammeka ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Tammeka higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Tammeka -14.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Tammeka 35.6% 50.2% -14.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 24.9% +4.7 pp Aligned
Kuressaare 34.7% 24.9% +9.8 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Tammeka's win probability at 50.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 14.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Tammeka win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Tammeka than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Tammeka higher (50.1% vs model 35.6%, 14.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Tammeka win 1–0).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 22, 2026 · 13:53 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Tammeka 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Kuressaare 34.7%
    • xG · Tammeka 1.31 — Kuressaare 1.29
  2. Aug 22, 2026 · 13:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Tammeka 1.85 · Draw 3.72 · Kuressaare 3.73
    • Implied 1X2 · Tammeka 50.2% · Draw 24.9% · Kuressaare 24.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 22, 2026 · 13:53 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · Tammeka 1.85 · Draw 3.72 · Kuressaare 3.73
    • Implied 1X2 · Tammeka 50.2% · Draw 24.9% · Kuressaare 24.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 22, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Tammeka win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 27/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 01:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4224197

Closing Odds 1.85
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Tammeka win · Tammeka 1–0 Kuressaare
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Meistriliiga
  • Fixture: Tammeka vs Kuressaare
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Tammeka 1.31 — Kuressaare 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Meistriliiga Matches Track Tammeka Next Match Prediction Track Kuressaare Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Tammeka & Kuressaare!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Meistriliiga Meistriliiga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FC Levadia Tallinn 29 22 6 1 72
2 Flora Tallinn 29 18 1 10 55
3 Paide 29 15 6 8 51
4 Kalju Nomme 29 15 5 9 50
5 Tammeka 29 14 2 13 44
6 Laagri 29 11 2 16 35
7 Vaprus 29 10 4 15 34
8 Kuressaare 29 8 5 16 29
9 Nõmme United 29 9 1 19 28
10 Trans Narva 29 5 4 20 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FC Levadia Tallinn 29 81 21 +60 72
2 Flora Tallinn 29 59 39 +20 55
3 Kalju Nomme 29 52 27 +25 50
4 Paide 29 48 36 +12 51
5 Nõmme United 29 47 68 -21 28
6 Laagri 29 40 47 -7 35
7 Vaprus 29 39 57 -18 34
8 Tammeka 29 37 47 -10 44
9 Kuressaare 29 31 49 -18 29
10 Trans Narva 29 22 65 -43 19