Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. Czech Liga / Zlin vs Slovan Liberec

Prediction Audit: Zlin vs Slovan Liberec Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Zlin Zlin
Aug 22, 2026 - 15:00
0 0.88
1 1.81
xG Accuracy: 63%
Slovan Liberec Slovan Liberec

AI correctly predicted the Slovan Liberec win.

The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Slovan Liberec Slovan Liberec ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 0-2, 1-1, 1-2, 0-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Slovan Liberec considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Slovan Liberec +6.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Zlin 18.6% 23.1% -4.6 pp Aligned
Draw 26.3% 27.9% -1.6 pp Aligned
Slovan Liberec 55.1% 49.0% +6.2 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Slovan Liberec's win probability at 55.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 49.0%, a difference of 6.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Slovan Liberec win 0–1).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Slovan Liberec.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Slovan Liberec attacking xG significantly stronger (1.81 vs 0.88)
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Slovan Liberec more conservatively (49.0% vs model 55.1%, 6.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Slovan Liberec win 0–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 22, 2026 · 19:49 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Zlin 18.5% · Draw 26.3% · Slovan Liberec 55.2%
    • xG · Zlin 0.88 — Slovan Liberec 1.81
  2. Aug 22, 2026 · 14:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Zlin 4.11 · Draw 3.41 · Slovan Liberec 1.94
    • Implied 1X2 · Zlin 23.1% · Draw 27.9% · Slovan Liberec 49.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 22, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Zlin 4.11 · Draw 3.41 · Slovan Liberec 1.94
    • Implied 1X2 · Zlin 23.1% · Draw 27.9% · Slovan Liberec 49.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 22, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Slovan Liberec win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Moderate model lean
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 69/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 02:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4232423

Closing Odds 1.94
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Slovan Liberec win · Zlin 0–1 Slovan Liberec
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Czech Liga
  • Fixture: Zlin vs Slovan Liberec
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Zlin 0.88 — Slovan Liberec 1.81 (total xG ≈ 2.69)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Czech Liga Czech Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Slavia Praha 9 7 2 0 23
2 Slovan Liberec 9 6 2 1 20
3 Mlada Boleslav 8 5 2 1 17
4 Sigma Olomouc 9 5 1 3 16
5 Teplice 9 5 1 3 16
6 Zbrojovka Brno 9 5 1 3 16
7 Sparta Praha 9 5 0 4 15
8 FK Jablonec 9 4 2 3 14
9 Hradec Králové 9 4 2 3 14
10 Plzen 9 2 4 3 10
11 Baník Ostrava 9 3 1 5 10
12 Bohemians 1905 8 2 3 3 9
13 Pardubice 9 2 2 5 8
14 Líšeň 9 1 2 6 5
15 Slovácko 9 0 4 5 4
16 Zlin 9 0 1 8 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Slavia Praha 9 25 6 +19 23
2 Sparta Praha 9 18 12 +6 15
3 Mlada Boleslav 8 17 9 +8 17
4 Teplice 9 17 15 +2 16
5 Plzen 9 17 17 0 10
6 Sigma Olomouc 9 16 13 +3 16
7 Slovan Liberec 9 13 4 +9 20
8 Zbrojovka Brno 9 12 12 0 16
9 FK Jablonec 9 11 9 +2 14
10 Bohemians 1905 8 9 11 -2 9
11 Pardubice 9 9 14 -5 8
12 Hradec Králové 9 8 9 -1 14
13 Zlin 9 8 19 -11 1
14 Slovácko 9 7 16 -9 4
15 Baník Ostrava 9 7 17 -10 10
16 Líšeň 9 7 18 -11 5
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Slavia Praha 9 15.5 7.2 +8.3 23
2 Slovan Liberec 9 11.4 7.2 +4.2 20
3 FK Jablonec 9 11.1 7.7 +3.4 14
4 Sparta Praha 9 13.3 10.4 +2.9 15
5 Hradec Králové 9 6.8 5.2 +1.6 14
6 Pardubice 9 8.9 8.2 +0.7 8
7 Plzen 9 8.9 8.4 +0.5 10
8 Zbrojovka Brno 9 7.6 7.3 +0.3 16
9 Sigma Olomouc 9 8.4 8.3 +0.1 16
10 Teplice 9 8.6 9.0 -0.4 16
11 Bohemians 1905 8 6.8 8.9 -2.1 9
12 Mlada Boleslav 8 10.8 13.2 -2.4 17
13 Líšeň 9 7.7 10.1 -2.4 5
14 Baník Ostrava 9 11.0 14.7 -3.7 10
15 Slovácko 9 7.5 12.4 -4.9 4
16 Zlin 9 6.1 11.9 -5.8 1