Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / Pogon Szczecin vs Udinese

Prediction Audit: Pogon Szczecin vs Udinese Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin
Sep 26, 2026 - 15:30
1 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 85%
Udinese Udinese

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Pogon Szczecin at 37.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Pogon Szczecin Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Udinese higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Udinese -11.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Pogon Szczecin 37.0% 26.1% +10.9 pp Model Edge
Draw 27.9% 27.8% +0.1 pp Aligned
Udinese 35.1% 46.1% -11.0 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Udinese's win probability at 46.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.1%, a difference of 11.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Udinese than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Pogon Szczecin; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Pogon Szczecin by 11.0 percentage points (48.0% vs model 37.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Pogon Szczecin 37.0% · Draw 27.9% · Udinese 35.1%
    • xG · Pogon Szczecin 1.32 — Udinese 1.28
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 15:04 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Pogon Szczecin 3.41 · Draw 3.20 · Udinese 1.93
    • Implied 1X2 · Pogon Szczecin 26.1% · Draw 27.8% · Udinese 46.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Pogon Szczecin 3.41 · Draw 3.20 · Udinese 1.93
    • Implied 1X2 · Pogon Szczecin 26.1% · Draw 27.8% · Udinese 46.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 15/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 23, 2026 · 00:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10411025

Closing Odds 1.93
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Pogon Szczecin 1–1 Udinese
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Friendlies Clubs
  • Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Udinese
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 27.9% · Away 35.1%
  • xG (showing): Pogon Szczecin 1.32 — Udinese 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.7% · No 46.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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