Predictions / Football / Algeria. Ligue 2 / Tiaret vs Usm El Harrach

Prediction Audit: Tiaret vs Usm El Harrach Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tiaret Tiaret
Sep 26, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.17
1 1.43
xG Accuracy: 85%
Usm El Harrach Usm El Harrach

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Usm El Harrach at 41.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Usm El Harrach Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Draw higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Draw -6.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Tiaret 29.2% 25.5% +3.8 pp Aligned
Draw 29.4% 35.5% -6.2 pp Market Higher
Usm El Harrach 41.4% 39.0% +2.4 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Draw's win probability at 35.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 29.4%, a difference of 6.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Draw. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Usm El Harrach; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Usm El Harrach by 6.2 percentage points (47.6% vs model 41.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Tiaret 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · Usm El Harrach 41.4%
    • xG · Tiaret 1.17 — Usm El Harrach 1.43
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 14:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Tiaret 3.49 · Draw 2.50 · Usm El Harrach 2.28
    • Implied 1X2 · Tiaret 25.5% · Draw 35.5% · Usm El Harrach 39.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Tiaret 3.49 · Draw 2.50 · Usm El Harrach 2.28
    • Implied 1X2 · Tiaret 25.5% · Draw 35.5% · Usm El Harrach 39.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 69/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 22, 2026 · 00:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10242572

Closing Odds 2.5
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Tiaret 1–1 Usm El Harrach
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Ligue 2
  • Fixture: Tiaret vs Usm El Harrach
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.4%
  • xG (showing): Tiaret 1.17 — Usm El Harrach 1.43 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.1% · Implied: 36.3% · Probability edge: +17.8 pts · Est. EV: +42.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Ligue 2 Matches Track Tiaret Next Match Prediction Track Usm El Harrach Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Tiaret & Usm El Harrach!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Ligue 2 Algeria. Ligue 2 Predictions